Miami @ Chicago Picks & Props

Derek Hill's BABIP skill is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Wrigley Field has the 5th-shallowest LF fences among all parks. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. Extreme groundball batters like Derek Hill usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jameson Taillon. As it relates to his batting average, Derek Hill has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .226 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .269.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. Nick Fortes pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Nick Fortes has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 89-mph average to last season's 84.1-mph figure. Nick Fortes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 11.6% to 21.4%.

The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for mound aces. Among every team today, the 5th-strongest infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs. Chicago's #3-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Xavier Edwards, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs. Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Xavier Edwards today. Xavier Edwards's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 87.1-mph figure last year has dropped to 84.2-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Javier Sanoja in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Wrigley Field has the 5th-shallowest LF fences among all parks. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. Extreme groundball hitters like Javier Sanoja generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jameson Taillon. Javier Sanoja has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 2.9% seasonal rate to 9.1% in the past week.

Wrigley Field has the 5th-shallowest LF fences among all parks. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Connor Norby is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. Connor Norby pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. In the past 7 days, Connor Norby's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.3% up to 18.2%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 10th-best batter in the league. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Extreme groundball hitters like Kyle Tucker tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Weathers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 76th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Pete Crow-Armstrong has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (91% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. Pete Crow-Armstrong is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Miami Marlins.

Wrigley Field has the 5th-shallowest LF fences among all parks. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. Justin Turner will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Weathers in today's game. Extreme groundball bats like Justin Turner tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Weathers. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Miami Marlins.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Wrigley Field has the 5th-shallowest LF fences among all parks. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. Seiya Suzuki will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Weathers today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today. Wrigley Field has the 5th-shallowest LF fences among all parks. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. Dansby Swanson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Weathers in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Jesus Sanchez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. Jesus Sanchez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jameson Taillon today. Jesus Sanchez has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

Carson Kelly is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Wrigley Field has the 5th-shallowest LF fences among all parks. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. Carson Kelly will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Weathers today. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Miami Marlins.

Nico Hoerner's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Weathers throws from, Nico Hoerner will have an advantage in today's matchup. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Miami Marlins. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Nico Hoerner will hold that advantage today.

Agustin Ramirez is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. Wrigley Field has the 5th-shallowest LF fences among all parks. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. Agustin Ramirez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 101.4-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal figure of 96.1-mph. Over the past week, Agustin Ramirez has displayed impressive power, recording a a 13.3% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power).

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. Hitting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Matt Mervis will have an advantage in today's game. Matt Mervis has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.1-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 90.6-mph mark.

Kyle Stowers is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. Kyle Stowers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jameson Taillon in today's matchup. Kyle Stowers has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 21.4% seasonal rate to 31.4% in the past 14 days. Kyle Stowers's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (15.1°) is significantly better than his 10.9° figure last year.

Jon Berti's BABIP talent is projected in the 91st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Weathers throws from, Jon Berti will have an advantage today. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Miami Marlins. Jon Berti will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Wrigley Field has the 5th-shallowest LF fences among all parks. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. Miguel Amaya will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Weathers in today's matchup. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Miami Marlins. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Miguel Amaya will hold that advantage today.

Graham Pauley has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Moises Ballesteros has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.