St. Louis @ Philadelphia picks

Let’s touch that second doubleheader. Erick Fedde has some bad numbers vs. a few of the Philly hitters, including Bryce Harper, who is 11-for-22 vs. the St. Louis starter. He has gone Over this number in five of his last six starts and his leash should be longer than usual because of the opener of a doubleheader. He is already a pitcher who touches 95+ pitches regularly, so triple-digits is on the table today. Don’t let his surface numbers fool you. His projected and expected metrics are telling a different story.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Brendan Donovan has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Brendan Donovan's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 45.8% to 57%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as baseball's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Citizens Bank Park has the smallest outfield in MLB — generally good for dingers.. Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage over Erick Fedde in today's matchup.. Kyle Schwarber will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Masyn Winn is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. Citizens Bank Park has the smallest outfield in MLB — generally good for dingers.. Masyn Winn will have the handedness advantage over Jesus Luzardo in today's game... and moreover, Luzardo has a large platoon split.. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.8°, Masyn Winn has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 25.6° angle in the last two weeks.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Nolan Arenado will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jesus Luzardo today... and even more favorably, Luzardo has a large platoon split.. Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Nolan Arenado's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, going from 35.5% on the season to 70% over the past 7 days.

Victor Scott II has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Victor Scott II's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, rising from 44% on the season to 52.2% in the past two weeks' worth of games.. Victor Scott II has notched a .284 batting average this year, ranking in the 78th percentile.

It is likely that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Lance Barksdale) calling pitches today.. Projected catcher J.T. Realmuto profiles as a weak pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Citizens Bank Park has the 8th-shallowest left field fences among all major league parks.. The St. Louis Cardinals have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jesus Luzardo in this game, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as baseball's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Citizens Bank Park has the smallest outfield in MLB — generally good for dingers.. Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage over Erick Fedde in today's matchup.. Kyle Schwarber will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Brendan Donovan has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Brendan Donovan's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 45.8% to 57%.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park has the smallest outfield in MLB — generally good for dingers.. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Lars Nootbaar has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 11.7% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. J.T. Realmuto is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Citizens Bank Park has the smallest outfield in MLB — generally good for dingers.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and J.T. Realmuto will hold that advantage today.. In the past 7 days, J.T. Realmuto's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.2% up to 20%.