Miami @ Chicago picks

Valente Bellozo has thrown a first-pitch ball against 37 of 76 batters faced, and the lack of a strikeout pitch is why his xFIP is nearly six runs per nine innings. Bellozo is primarily a fly-ball pitcher with a high hard contact rate on a short leash. Chicago slashes .247/.324/.427 with a .751 OPS against righties and has several lefty bats who will help send Bellozo packing early. It's a great price on a market Bellozo has cleared once in five starts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 88th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Kyle Stowers will hold the platoon advantage against Ben Brown in today's game.. The Barrel% of Kyle Stowers has significantly improved, with an increase from 11% last year to 21.4% this year.. Kyle Stowers has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 20.8% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Valente Bellozo in the 19th percentile when estimating his overall pitching talent level.. Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Valente Bellozo is projected to throw 81 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 4th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.. The 5th-best projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Chicago Cubs.. Valente Bellozo has a large reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of facing 6 same-handed hitters in today's outing.. Playing on the road generally lowers pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Valente Bellozo in today's game.

Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation among all parks, which generally leads to more offense.. Matt Mervis will hold the platoon advantage against Ben Brown in today's matchup.. Matt Mervis has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 96-mph in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Derek Hill in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation among all parks, which generally leads to more offense.. Extreme flyball hitters like Derek Hill are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ben Brown.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.269) provides evidence that Derek Hill has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .226 actual batting average.. Derek Hill's 10.9% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power) grades out in the 80th percentile since the start of last season.