Boston @ Kansas City picks

Lucas Giolito looks rusty in his return from elbow surgery and has historically struggled against Kansas City, surrendering a .923 OPS to Royals hitters over his career. Meanwhile, Seth Lugo has been dealing for KC, posting a 2.84 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 50 2/3 innings, and the right-hander is now set to face a Red Sox team perturbed by the injury to Triston Casas and the subsequent comments from Rafael Devers.

Right-hander Lucas Giolito takes the mound for Boston, and is arguably the worst starting pitcher in baseball this season. Through two starts, Giolito is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. If he qualified, he would rank in the bottom quarter of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, Salvador Perez seemingly has Giolito’s number. Through 37 plate appearances against the right-hander, Perez boasts a .946 slugging percentage with five home runs.

Rafael Devers has been seeing the ball well recently, posting a .410 batting average, .714 slugging percentage and 1.214 OPS over his past 14 games. Devers has hit four home runs over that stretch. That success is likely to continue against right-hander Seth Lugo. Lugo is a prime regression candidate, sporting a 4.33 xERA compared to his 2.84 ERA. Furthermore, Devers is 2-for-5 in his career against Lugo, with one of those two hits being a home run.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Rafael Devers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Seth Lugo today.. Rafael Devers has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 13.1% rate last season to 19% this season.

Trevor Story's BABIP talent is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trevor Story is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Placing in the 92nd percentile, Trevor Story sports a .344 BABIP since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Rafael Devers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Seth Lugo today.. Rafael Devers has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 13.1% rate last season to 19% this season.

Kauffman Stadium projects as the #30 stadium in Major League Baseball for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for mound aces.. Wilyer Abreu pulls a lot of his flyballs (34% — 82nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's deepest RF fences today.. Extreme flyball batters like Wilyer Abreu generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Seth Lugo.. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Wilyer Abreu in today's game.

When assessing his home run skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand today.. Wilyer Abreu's launch angle this year (26.9°) is significantly better than his 19° figure last season.