Cincinnati @ Houston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Matt McLain is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Matt McLain has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.7-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 90.9-mph figure. Over the last 7 days, Matt McLain's 58.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.9%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Matt McLain's true offensive skill to be a .333, providing some evidence that he has been unlucky this year given the .056 difference between that figure and his actual .277 wOBA.

The #10 venue in Major League Baseball for suppressing BABIP to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Hitting from the same side that Chase Petty throws from, Jeremy Pena will have a disadvantage in today's matchup. Jeremy Pena's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off lately, decreasing from 10.3% on the season to 5.9% in the past week. Jeremy Pena is in the 12th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (10.3% rate this year).

The #10 venue in Major League Baseball for suppressing BABIP to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Batting from the same side that Chase Petty throws from, Yainer Diaz will be at a disadvantage in today's game. Yainer Diaz hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 78th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's game. Yainer Diaz has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 9.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week.

Tyler Stephenson's BABIP ability is projected in the 85th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Tyler Stephenson has been hot lately, notching a a 25% Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power) in the past 7 days. Tyler Stephenson has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits recently, angling balls between -4° and 26° 69.2% of the time over the last 14 days.

Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Spencer Steer's true offensive skill to be a .314, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .065 gap between that figure and his actual .249 wOBA. Spencer Steer has displayed impressive plate discipline since the start of last season, grading out in the 75th percentile with a 2.06 K/BB rate.

Victor Caratini has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (77% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Extreme flyball hitters like Victor Caratini are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Chase Petty. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Victor Caratini will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Victor Caratini has compiled a .334 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, checking in at the 79th percentile.

Austin Hays is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. Austin Hays pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Austin Hays has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 6.8% rate last year to 19.5% this season. Austin Hays has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last year's 91.6-mph mark. Compared to last year, Austin Hays has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 11.8% to 19.5% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 82nd percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Santiago Espinal has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 91.9-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 86.7-mph mark. Santiago Espinal's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 14.3% to 19.8%. Santiago Espinal's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, going from 19.8% on the season to 42.1% over the last week. Santiago Espinal has shown favorable plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 78th percentile with a 1.97 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 75th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage today. Jake Meyers has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.1-mph average to last year's 88.2-mph figure. Jake Meyers's launch angle in recent games (26.8° in the last 7 days) is quite a bit higher than his 9.9° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Rodgers in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Extreme groundball bats like Brendan Rodgers are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Chase Petty. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today. Brendan Rodgers will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. In the last 7 days, Brendan Rodgers's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 15.2% up to 28.6%.

Jose Altuve's batting average talent is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Altuve is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today. Jose Altuve will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

TJ Friedl is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, TJ Friedl will have the upper hand today. In the past week's worth of games, TJ Friedl's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 2.6% up to 16.7%. In the past week's worth of games, TJ Friedl's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.1-mph over the course of the season to 101.1-mph lately. In the past week's worth of games, TJ Friedl's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zachary Dezenzo in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today. Zachary Dezenzo will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Over the past 7 days, Zachary Dezenzo's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.2% up to 22.2%. In the last week's worth of games, Zachary Dezenzo's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.9%.

When assessing his BABIP ability, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game. The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Ronel Blanco. Hitters such as Elly De La Cruz with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ronel Blanco who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Sporting a .349 BABIP since the start of last season, Elly De La Cruz finds himself in the 97th percentile.

Christian Walker is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. Christian Walker pulls many of his flyballs (34.3% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.6°, Christian Walker has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 24.7° figure over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 88th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Gavin Lux is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Gavin Lux will have the upper hand in today's matchup. With a .330 BABIP since the start of last season, Gavin Lux is ranked in the 90th percentile.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.6% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage today. By putting up a .352 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Isaac Paredes finds himself in the 78th percentile.

Jose Trevino has exhibited good plate discipline since the start of last season, placing in the 77th percentile with a 2.02 K/BB rate.

Mauricio Dubon has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.