Los Angeles @ Arizona picks

The Japanese phenom left the yard on Thursday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the Dodgers face them again tonight. Arizona hands the ball to lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who has struggled with a 5.92 ERA and has allowed seven home runs. Ohtani is 3-for-13 lifetime against the southpaw, boasting a homer in the process. Considering how often he’s going deep, it’s hard to overlook this pick.

The Dodgers are second in the majors in OPS (.796) while the Diamondbacks are fourth (.762). The Dodgers also plate a the first inning at the fifth-highest rate (36.8%) in the majors while the D-backs are 10th. Rookie Roki Sasaki has struggled with L.A., posting an xERA of 5.62 which is right around the same 5.14 mark for his ERA in the first inning. Arizona will send Eduardo Rodriguez and his 5.92 ERA to the mound. He has pitched to a 7.07 ERA with an OBA of .312 through the first two innings. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks team total is set at 4.5. The D-backs have scored 5+ runs in four of their last six home games, and I’m betting on them doing so again in a favorable matchup. Roki Sasaki has been unable to garner many strikeouts (17.9% K rate) and is walking far too many batters (14.9% BB rate). He’s walked multiple batters in every start, and it has caught up to him recently (six earned runs across his last two starts). Opposing hitters aren’t fooled by his stuff (third percentile chase rate) and are making quality contact (29th percentile hard-hit rate). It doesn’t help that he’s a fly ball pitcher, ranking in the 29th percentile in groundball rate. 

The #2 venue in MLB for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Michael Conforto's true offensive skill to be a .314, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .071 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .243 wOBA.. With a .298 Isolated Power (ISO) since the start of last season, Michael Conforto finds himself in the 80th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pavin Smith in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Pavin Smith is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The #2 venue in MLB for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Roki Sasaki throws from, Pavin Smith will have the upper hand in today's game.

The #2 venue in MLB for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Michael Conforto's true offensive skill to be a .314, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .071 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .243 wOBA.. With a .298 Isolated Power (ISO) since the start of last season, Michael Conforto finds himself in the 80th percentile.