St. Louis @ Washington picks

Nationals Park

STL vs WAS Picks

MLB Picks
1st 5 Innings MoneyLine
St. Louis Cardinals logo
STL 1st 5 Innings (-102)
Best Odds
 +105 BetMGM
Pick made: 2 months ago
Phil Naessens image
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
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 -900
 +105
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A red-hot club like the St. Louis Cardinals should be a heavy favorite to wallop a sub-.500 group like the Washington Nationals. The Cards are only batting .228 on the road, but their .279 BABIP and .325 BABIP against left-handed pitching suggest some bad luck could change tonight. While advanced metrics suggest the Cards' bats could see positive regression, the same can’t be said for Nationals left-hander Mitchell Parker. Parker is 3-0 at home and twirling a .193/.291/.216 slash line, but he’s issued nine walks in his past two starts with a home xFIP nearly three runs higher than his ERA, and these Cards boast a high walk rate (10%) while slashing .252/.343/.360 against lefties.

Total RBIs
James Wood logo
James Wood o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
Best Odds
o0.5 +175 BetMGM
Pick made: 2 months ago
EV Model Rating
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o0.5  +175
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When estimating his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. James Wood will hold the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde in today's matchup.. James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme groundball batters like James Wood tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Erick Fedde.
Total RBIs
Brendan Donovan logo
Brendan Donovan o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
Best Odds
o0.5 +200 BetMGM
Pick made: 2 months ago
EV Model Rating
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o0.5  +200
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The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Brendan Donovan has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Brendan Donovan's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 45.8% to 57.9%.. In notching a .337 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Brendan Donovan is positioned in the 100th percentile.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Victor Scott II logo
Victor Scott II o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-160)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
Best Odds
o0.5 -160 BetMGM
Pick made: 2 months ago
EV Model Rating
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o0.5  -160
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Among all major league stadiums, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 7th-shallowest.. Victor Scott II grades out in the 77th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (17.8% rate since the start of last season).
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
James Wood logo
James Wood o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-120)
Projection 2.3 (Over)
Best Odds
o1.5 -120 BetMGM
Pick made: 2 months ago
EV Model Rating
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o1.5  -120
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When estimating his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. James Wood will hold the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde in today's matchup.. James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme groundball batters like James Wood tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Erick Fedde.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Lars Nootbaar logo
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-105)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
Best Odds
o1.5 -105 BetMGM
Pick made: 2 months ago
EV Model Rating
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o1.5  -105
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As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. Among all major league stadiums, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 7th-shallowest.. Lars Nootbaar's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 43.2% to 50%.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.382) provides evidence that Lars Nootbaar has experienced some negative variance this year with his .345 actual wOBA.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Brendan Donovan logo
Brendan Donovan o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-110)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
Best Odds
o1.5 -110 BetMGM
Pick made: 2 months ago
EV Model Rating
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o1.5  -110
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The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Brendan Donovan has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Brendan Donovan's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 45.8% to 57.9%.. In notching a .337 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Brendan Donovan is positioned in the 100th percentile.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Nathaniel Lowe logo
Nathaniel Lowe o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-105)
Projection 2 (Over)
Best Odds
o1.5 -105 BetMGM
Pick made: 2 months ago
EV Model Rating
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o1.5  -105
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Nathaniel Lowe's BABIP ability is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nathaniel Lowe is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Nathaniel Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde in today's matchup.. Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball hitters like Nathaniel Lowe generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Erick Fedde.

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