St. Louis @ Washington picks

A red-hot club like the St. Louis Cardinals should be a heavy favorite to wallop a sub-.500 group like the Washington Nationals. The Cards are only batting .228 on the road, but their .279 BABIP and .325 BABIP against left-handed pitching suggest some bad luck could change tonight. While advanced metrics suggest the Cards' bats could see positive regression, the same can’t be said for Nationals left-hander Mitchell Parker. Parker is 3-0 at home and twirling a .193/.291/.216 slash line, but he’s issued nine walks in his past two starts with a home xFIP nearly three runs higher than his ERA, and these Cards boast a high walk rate (10%) while slashing .252/.343/.360 against lefties.

When estimating his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. James Wood will hold the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde in today's matchup.. James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme groundball batters like James Wood tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Erick Fedde.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Brendan Donovan has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Brendan Donovan's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 45.8% to 57.9%.. In notching a .337 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Brendan Donovan is positioned in the 100th percentile.

Among all major league stadiums, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 7th-shallowest.. Victor Scott II grades out in the 77th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (17.8% rate since the start of last season).

When estimating his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. James Wood will hold the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde in today's matchup.. James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme groundball batters like James Wood tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Erick Fedde.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. Among all major league stadiums, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 7th-shallowest.. Lars Nootbaar's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 43.2% to 50%.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.382) provides evidence that Lars Nootbaar has experienced some negative variance this year with his .345 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Brendan Donovan has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Brendan Donovan's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 45.8% to 57.9%.. In notching a .337 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Brendan Donovan is positioned in the 100th percentile.

Nathaniel Lowe's BABIP ability is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nathaniel Lowe is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Nathaniel Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde in today's matchup.. Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball hitters like Nathaniel Lowe generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Erick Fedde.