Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay picks

We go back to the well here with the Phillies, and they should have no issues continuing their hot-hitting ways against Ryan Pepiot. The Phils have put up at least seven runs in four straight games, and that'll be enough to pick up the sweep vs. the Rays. 

Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Jesus Luzardo will take the hill against a Tampa Bay Rays team that have been held to two runs or fewer in five of their past eight contests. Luzardo is off to a 3-0 start this season, boasting a 1.94 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, and I’m buying into that scorching form by backing the Under on the 8.5-run total. In many ways, though, this pick is more about the Rays than Luzardo. With underwhelming numbers up and down the order, the Under is 7-3 in Tampa Bay’s last 10 games, and 20-14 overall this year.

Kyle Schwarber is tied for the MLB lead in homers with 12, and he’s already smacked three bombs in only six games in May, including in two of the last three contests. Rays SP Ryan Pepiot has given up eight home runs this season, with all of them coming at tonight's venue: George Steinbrenner Field.

Jesus Luzardo has a 1.94 ERA with an xERA of 2.94 through seven starts. The O/U earned runs for Luzardo is installed at 2.5 today, a number he has gone below in six of seven starts this year. The southpaw does a great job of making batters miss, sitting in the top 20th percentile in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. He should have plenty of success against a Tampa Bay lineup that ranks 24th in strikeout rate (23.2%) and 23rd in OPS (.669). The Rays have been even worse against lefties, batting .182 with an OPS of just .536.