New York @ St. Louis picks

It's tough to see how runs will be scored in this game. Both teams send out pitchers having excellent seasons in Clay Holmes and Sonny Gray. Both pitchers have solid ERAs and WHIPs, and both are getting plenty of swings and misses. I'll take the pitcher to dominate in this fierce division clash. 

Soto's two-homer outburst Thursday extended his heater to an 8-for-25 stretch with four extra-base hits and a 1.073 OPS. He entered 2025 with a monster .414 wOBA and .975 OPS against righties over the prior three season, and he’s a career 5-for-10 with a 1.400 OPS against Cards starter Sonny Gray in a small sample. Additionally, Gray's fastball velocity is down and his xFIP is up (3.53 vs. 2.82) over last season, and the Mets just faced the veteran righty April 20.

Gray's fastball velocity is down, and his xFIP is at 3.53 after posting a 2.82 mark in 2024. Additionally, Gray 76.7% strand rate and .253 BABIP are better than his respective 67.9% and .299 marks from last year. Plus, while the Mets send out an above-average lineup against right-handed pitchers with a solid .318 wOBA and .171 ISO, I think the best is still ahead. Prized offseason acquisition Juan Soto is sporting an uncharacteristically low .338 wOBA against righties, and third baseman Mark Vientos is just beginning to heat up after a poor start, including a .333 wOBA vs. RHP.

When assessing his home run skill, Mark Vientos ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. With a .342 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Mark Vientos is positioned in the 82nd percentile.. Mark Vientos has hit 30.6 homers per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, grading out in the 93rd percentile for power.

Pete Alonso projects as the 14th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. The Barrel% of Pete Alonso has significantly improved, with an increase from 13.2% last year to 19.6% this year.. Pete Alonso has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last season's 89.7-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Nolan Gorman as MLB's 17th-best home run hitter.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. Nolan Gorman will have the handedness advantage over Clay Holmes in today's matchup.. The New York Mets don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman is certain to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the whole game.. Extreme flyball hitters like Nolan Gorman tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Clay Holmes.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 86th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. Francisco Alvarez has been hot recently, posting a 93.4-mph average exit velocity in the last 7 days.. Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Francisco Alvarez has connected with reached a maximum exit velocity of 114.8 mph (an advanced stat to study power), ranking in the 90th percentile.

Pete Alonso projects as the 14th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. The Barrel% of Pete Alonso has significantly improved, with an increase from 13.2% last year to 19.6% this year.. Pete Alonso has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last season's 89.7-mph average.