Chicago @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 7th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 53°. The Chicago White Sox infield defense profiles as the 4th-best among all the teams on the slate today. Compared to his seasonal angle of 10.3°, Jarren Duran has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-2.2°) over the past 14 days. Jarren Duran's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (4°) is significantly worse than his 8.4° mark last year.

Andrew Benintendi's batting average skill is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Andrew Benintendi is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in MLB for left-handed batting average. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's RF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Andrew Benintendi will have the upper hand today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edgar Quero in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Edgar Quero has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in MLB for left-handed batting average. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's RF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 15th-best out of every team in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in MLB for left-handed batting average. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's RF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 15th-best out of every team in action today. Brooks Baldwin has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 11.1% seasonal rate to 26.7% in the past 7 days. Brooks Baldwin has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.8-mph average to last year's 90.6-mph EV.

Nick Maton is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in MLB for left-handed batting average. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Nick Maton will have an advantage in today's game. Nick Maton hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Bats such as Nick Maton with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Walker Buehler who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average. Miguel Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball batters like Miguel Vargas tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Walker Buehler. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 15th-best out of every team in action today. Miguel Vargas has made big strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 4.6% rate last year to 11.1% this year.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Rafael Devers ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in MLB for left-handed batting average. Rafael Devers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jonathan Cannon today. Rafael Devers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert Jr. in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Luis Robert Jr. is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 15th-best out of every team in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 76th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in MLB for left-handed batting average. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's RF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Jonathan Cannon throws from, Triston Casas will have an edge in today's matchup. Triston Casas will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Alex Bregman is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average. Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 85th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Batters such as Alex Bregman with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jonathan Cannon who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Carlos Narvaez will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In the last week's worth of games, Carlos Narvaez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 84.7-mph over the course of the season to 89.6-mph of late. Over the past 7 days, Carlos Narvaez has displayed impressive power, recording a a 15.4% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power).

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Andrew Vaughn ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew Vaughn is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average. Andrew Vaughn hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 15th-best out of every team in action today.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in MLB for left-handed batting average. Wilyer Abreu will hold the platoon advantage against Jonathan Cannon in today's game. Wilyer Abreu pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Kristian Campbell will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Kristian Campbell has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 93.1-mph in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Rob Refsnyder will hold that advantage in today's game. Rob Refsnyder has hit 44.9% of his balls in the air at least 100 mph since the start of last season, checking in at the 92nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average. Jacob Amaya has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 15th-best out of every team in action today. Over the past 14 days, Jacob Amaya has been successful in optimizing the launch angle of his hardest hit balls to hit for power, compiling a 23° angle. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jacob Amaya has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .162 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .205.

Lenyn Sosa is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average. Lenyn Sosa has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 15th-best out of every team in action today. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Lenyn Sosa has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .281 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .324.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Trevor Story is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Trevor Story will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in the game for right-handed batting average. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Ceddanne Rafaela will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Ceddanne Rafaela has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10.2% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the last week. In the past week's worth of games, Ceddanne Rafaela's 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.4%.