Miami @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

The #6 venue in the majors for suppressing BABIP to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park. Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to worse offense. Batting from the same side that Cal Quantrill throws from, Nick Castellanos will have a tough matchup in today's matchup. Nick Castellanos's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (15.8° in the past week's worth of games) is considerably worse than his 20.9° seasonal mark.

Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #25 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to worse offense. Jesus Sanchez will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 4th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (10.7% rate since the start of last season). As it relates to plate discipline, Jesus Sanchez's talent is quite bad, putting up a 3.64 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 21st percentile.

Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #25 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to worse offense.

Citizens Bank Park grades out as the #25 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to worse offense. Xavier Edwards will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. Xavier Edwards's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 87.1-mph average last season has decreased to 80.8-mph. Xavier Edwards's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (6.6°) is a considerable dropoff from his 10.8° mark last season.

The #6 venue in the majors for suppressing BABIP to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park. Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to worse offense. Cal Quantrill will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trea Turner in today's matchup. Trea Turner's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 92.1-mph mark last season has lowered to 88.2-mph. Over the last two weeks, Trea Turner has been exhibiting poor exit velocity numbers, with an average of only 88.2-mph on his flyballs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 96th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all parks — generally good for homers. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Connor Norby has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .312 figure is considerably lower than his .335 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Connor Norby's 14.4% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) ranks in the 92nd percentile since the start of last season.

Eric Wagaman is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all parks — generally good for homers. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Eric Wagaman has hit one of the hardest balls in the league in the last week's worth of games — 109.7-mph — which is a strong indicator of recent form and raw power. The standard deviation of Eric Wagaman's launch angle has been very consistent of late (32.9° over the past two weeks), which is an indicator of reliable bat control and seeing the ball well.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all parks — generally good for homers. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. The Miami Marlins outfield defense grades out as the 5th-worst among every team on the slate today. J.T. Realmuto will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all parks — generally good for homers. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Kyle Stowers will hold the platoon advantage against Taijuan Walker in today's game. The Barrel% of Kyle Stowers has significantly improved, with an increase from 11% last year to 19% this year.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Graham Pauley will hold the platoon advantage against Taijuan Walker in today's game. Graham Pauley has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Graham Pauley's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.8-mph over the course of the season to 95.7-mph of late. Graham Pauley has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .209 mark is quite a bit lower than his .242 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (59% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Bryson Stott will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cal Quantrill in today's matchup. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryson Stott stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all parks — generally good for homers. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Extreme flyball hitters like Otto Lopez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Taijuan Walker. Otto Lopez has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .266 BA is quite a bit lower than his .281 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Kyle Schwarber ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all parks — generally good for homers. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Kyle Schwarber will hold the platoon advantage against Cal Quantrill in today's matchup.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Liam Hicks will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Taijuan Walker in today's game. Liam Hicks has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Liam Hicks has been successful in optimizing the launch angle of his hardest hit balls to hit for power, posting a 34° angle.

Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all parks — generally good for homers. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. The Miami Marlins outfield defense grades out as the 5th-worst among every team on the slate today. Johan Rojas will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all parks — generally good for homers. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. The Miami Marlins outfield defense grades out as the 5th-worst among every team on the slate today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Alec Bohm will hold that advantage today.

Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all parks — generally good for homers. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Griffin Conine will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Taijuan Walker today. Over the last 7 days, Griffin Conine's 38.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.5%. Griffin Conine has been hot recently, notching a a 13.6% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) in the past two weeks.

Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all parks — generally good for homers. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Max Kepler will hold the platoon advantage against Cal Quantrill in today's game. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. The Miami Marlins outfield defense grades out as the 5th-worst among every team on the slate today.

Matt Mervis is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences among all parks — generally good for homers. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Matt Mervis will hold the platoon advantage over Taijuan Walker in today's game. Matt Mervis has made notable gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 21.7% seasonal rate to 50% in the past week.