Cincinnati @ Baltimore Picks & Props

According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 6th-best for pitching on the slate today. Ryan Mountcastle's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 91.9-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 70-mph in the past week. Ryan Mountcastle's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, going from 12.5% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days. Ryan Mountcastle has shown weak plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 14th percentile with a 4.13 K/BB rate.

According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 6th-best for pitching on the slate today. Among every team playing today, the 5th-best infield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles. Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Santiago Espinal today. There has been a decrease in Santiago Espinal's average exit velocity this year, from 85.9 mph last year to 80.6 mph now Santiago Espinal's launch angle of late (6° in the past 7 days) is significantly lower than his 13.2° seasonal angle.

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 16th-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. Gunnar Henderson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best hitter in the league when assessing his BABIP ability. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. Elly De La Cruz hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Elly De La Cruz has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last season's 94-mph EV.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. The switch-hitting Jeimer Candelario will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Cade Povich. Over the past week, Jeimer Candelario's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.6% up to 12.5%. Jeimer Candelario's launch angle recently (47.7° in the last week) is significantly higher than his 10° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heston Kjerstad in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Heston Kjerstad will hold that advantage today. In the past week, Heston Kjerstad's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97.2-mph over the course of the season to 104.4-mph of late.

TJ Friedl is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. TJ Friedl pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.5% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. As it relates to plate discipline, TJ Friedl's skill is quite good, posting a 1.97 K/BB rate since the start of last season while grading out in in the 78th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Matt McLain is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. Matt McLain will have the handedness advantage over Cade Povich today. Matt McLain hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Tyler O'Neill will have an edge in today's matchup. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. The switch-hitting Adley Rutschman will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Andrew Abbott. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today.

Cedric Mullins is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today. Cedric Mullins will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. Noelvi Marte will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Povich in today's matchup. Noelvi Marte hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Noelvi Marte's maximum exit velocity (an advanced stat to study power) has been 111.5 mph since the start of last season, grading out in the 77th percentile. Noelvi Marte has been very good at hitting the ball to all fields (an important skill for batting average), checking in at the 88th percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Jose Trevino will have an edge in today's matchup. Jose Trevino has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the past week to his seasonal figure of 90-mph. As it relates to plate discipline, Jose Trevino's talent is quite impressive, putting up a 1.88 K/BB rate since the start of last season while grading out in in the 84th percentile.

Spencer Steer is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Spencer Steer will have an advantage in today's game. Compared to last season, Spencer Steer has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15.3% to 19.4% this season. Posting a 1.98 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Spencer Steer has demonstrated impressive plate discipline, ranking in the 78th percentile.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Gary Sanchez will have an advantage today. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today. Gary Sanchez will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Gary Sanchez has connected with reached a maximum exit velocity of 114.4 mph (an advanced stat to study power), checking in at the 93rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average skill. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Jordan Westburg will have an advantage today. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today. Jordan Westburg will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Austin Hays is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Austin Hays will have an advantage in today's matchup. In the past week, Austin Hays has displayed impressive power, recording a a 20% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power). The standard deviation of Austin Hays's launch angle has been very consistent recently (40.4° in the past week), which is a measure of reliable bat control and seeing the ball well.

Blake Dunn's BABIP talent is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. Blake Dunn will have the handedness advantage against Cade Povich today. Blake Dunn has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Jorge Mateo will have an advantage today. Jorge Mateo hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Jorge Mateo will hold that advantage today.

Ramon Laureano's BABIP skill is projected in the 75th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13.8-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Ramon Laureano will have an edge today. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Ramon Laureano will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Ramon Urias has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.