Houston @ St. Louis Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thomas Saggese in the 83rd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Thomas Saggese will hold that advantage today.

Yohel Pozo will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-most fair ground in the majors — generally bad for HRs. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report forecasts the 2nd-least humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 31%. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jeremy Pena today. Sporting a 4.09 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Jeremy Pena has shown poor plate discipline, grading out in the 15th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 4th-best hitter in the majors. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game. Yordan Alvarez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. In the past week, Yordan Alvarez's maximum exit velocity (a good indicator of recent form and raw power) has been 113.6-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in the majors. Yordan Alvarez has posted a .388 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 98th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report forecasts the 2nd-least humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 31%. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jose Altuve today. Jose Altuve's average exit velocity has declined this year; his 86.5-mph mark last year has decreased to 82.9-mph.

Brendan Rodgers's BABIP ability is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Steven Matz throws from, Brendan Rodgers will have an advantage in today's game. Brendan Rodgers hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Posting a .320 BABIP since the start of last season, Brendan Rodgers grades out in the 83rd percentile.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-most fair ground in the majors — generally bad for HRs. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report forecasts the 2nd-least humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 31%. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Yainer Diaz is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of St. Louis (#3-best on the slate). Yainer Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today. Nolan Arenado has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.1-mph average to last season's 89.2-mph EV. Nolan Arenado has shown impressive plate discipline since the start of last season, placing in the 83rd percentile with a 1.83 K/BB rate. Grading out in the 87th percentile, Nolan Arenado sits with a .276 batting average since the start of last season.

Batting from the opposite that Steven Matz throws from, Mauricio Dubon will have an edge in today's matchup. Mauricio Dubon has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 91.1-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 83.7-mph. With a .266 batting average since the start of last season, Mauricio Dubon finds himself in the 79th percentile.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. Isaac Paredes will have the handedness advantage over Steven Matz in today's matchup. Isaac Paredes has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 88.6-mph average to last year's 85-mph EV. Isaac Paredes's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 39.7% to 47.8%. Isaac Paredes has been lifting the ball well lately, notching a 26.2° launch angle in the past week's worth of games.

Jake Meyers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Steven Matz today. Jake Meyers hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.258) may lead us to conclude that Jake Meyers has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .225 actual batting average.

Pedro Pages will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Pedro Pages's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 14.4% to 20%.

Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Christian Walker will hold the platoon advantage over Steven Matz in today's game. Based on Statcast data, Christian Walker ranks in the 83rd percentile for offensive skills per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .341.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 78th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Jordan Walker will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Willson Contreras will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Willson Contreras's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 45.9% to 53.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 76th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Batting from the opposite that Steven Matz throws from, Chas McCormick will have an advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.225) implies that Chas McCormick has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .213 actual batting average. Chas McCormick is in the 86th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (19.4% rate since the start of last season). Ranking in the 86th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.67 ft/sec since the start of last season, Chas McCormick is quite athletic.

Hitting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Victor Scott will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Victor Scott generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ronel Blanco. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Victor Scott will hold that advantage in today's game. Victor Scott has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 92.9-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal figure of 90.7-mph. Victor Scott's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (18.5° over the past week) is considerably better than his 12.4° seasonal figure.

Batting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an advantage in today's game. Nolan Gorman will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Nolan Gorman's 17.5% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) ranks in the 98th percentile since the start of last season. Nolan Gorman and his 24.7° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 100th percentile, among the highest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season.

Brendan Donovan's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brendan Donovan is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Brendan Donovan will have the handedness advantage over Ronel Blanco in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Brendan Donovan will hold that advantage in today's game. Brendan Donovan has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, improving his 5.5% rate last year to 10.9% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage over Ronel Blanco in today's game. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Lars Nootbaar will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 89th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Alec Burleson will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Alec Burleson grades out in the 84th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .274.