Boston @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

George M. Steinbrenner Field ranks as the #22 field in the league for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Extreme flyball bats like Yandy Diaz tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Sean Newcomb. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of every team playing today. Yandy Diaz's launch angle this season (-0.5°) is significantly lower than his 4.8° figure last year. Compared to his seasonal mark of 2.2°, Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls has dropped significantly recently (-4.3° in the past 14 days).

The #8 ballpark in baseball for suppressing batting average to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field. Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 7th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams on the slate today, the best infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays. Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Jarren Duran has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 9.8% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell as the 16th-best batter in the league when it comes to his BABIP talent. This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Over the past week, Kristian Campbell has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .387. Kristian Campbell has shown some good exit velocity indicators in recent games, averaging 97.8-mph on his flyballs over the last week.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Rafael Devers ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Hitting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand in today's game. Rafael Devers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 41.7% to 51.2%.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Triston Casas ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Triston Casas will have the handedness advantage over Zack Littell in today's matchup. Triston Casas's launch angle this season (19.3°) is significantly higher than his 10.5° figure last season. Triston Casas's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 18.4% on the season to 25% in the last week.

Romy Gonzalez's BABIP talent is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Romy Gonzalez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Romy Gonzalez has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Bats such as Romy Gonzalez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Zack Littell who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Hitting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, David Hamilton will have an edge in today's game. David Hamilton has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .290 rate is quite a bit lower than his .314 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. David Hamilton grades out in the 88th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (46.4% rate since the start of last season). David Hamilton is quite fast, placing in the 94th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.35 ft/sec since the start of last season.

This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Ceddanne Rafaela's launch angle of late (19.3° over the past week) is a considerable increase over his 8.1° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Batting from the opposite that Sean Newcomb throws from, Junior Caminero will have the upper hand in today's game. Junior Caminero will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The switch-hitting Jake Mangum will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Sean Newcomb. Jake Mangum has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. Jake Mangum will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Trevor Story is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Launch angles in the range of -4° to 26° tend to become base hits at a high rate; Trevor Story and his 48.1% since the start of last season rank in the 88th percentile by this measure. Checking in at the 97th percentile of THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season, Trevor Story demonstrated exceptional skill in hitting the ball to all fields - a crucial talent for achieving a high batting average.

Jose Caballero is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Jose Caballero will hold the platoon advantage against Sean Newcomb in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Jose Caballero will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the last 7 days, Jose Caballero has posted a 42.3° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.

This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Taylor Walls will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Sean Newcomb in this game. Taylor Walls will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Danny Jansen will hold the platoon advantage against Sean Newcomb in today's matchup. Extreme flyball batters like Danny Jansen tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Sean Newcomb. Danny Jansen will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Danny Jansen's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 16.4% to 20.7%.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Wilyer Abreu will hold the platoon advantage over Zack Littell in today's matchup. Wilyer Abreu pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 86th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Coco Montes will hold the platoon advantage over Sean Newcomb in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Coco Montes will hold that advantage in today's game.

Curtis Mead is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Batting from the opposite that Sean Newcomb throws from, Curtis Mead will have the upper hand today. Curtis Mead has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Curtis Mead will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Christopher Morel is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. This matchup is forecasted to have the 14th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Hitting from the opposite that Sean Newcomb throws from, Christopher Morel will have an advantage in today's game. Christopher Morel will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.