Houston @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 3rd-best hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Yordan Alvarez will have an advantage in today's game. Yordan Alvarez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. There has been a significant improvement in Yordan Alvarez's launch angle from last year's 18.2° to 21.2° this season.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's game. Nolan Arenado has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 91.5-mph average to last year's 89.2-mph EV. As it relates to plate discipline, Nolan Arenado's ability is quite strong, putting up a 1.83 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 83rd percentile. Posting a .276 batting average since the start of last season, Nolan Arenado is ranked in the 87th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 78th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Jordan Walker will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's game. Pedro Pages's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 14.4% to 22.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Willson Contreras is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Willson Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today. Willson Contreras's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 45.9% to 54.3%.

Nolan Gorman will hold the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown today. Extreme flyball batters like Nolan Gorman usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's game. Nolan Gorman's 17.3% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power) is in the 98th percentile since the start of last season. Nolan Gorman and his 24.8° launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls rank in 100th percentile, among the highest in the league since the start of last season.

Jeremy Pena's batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jeremy Pena is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Jeremy Pena has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.5-mph average to last season's 88.1-mph mark. Jeremy Pena has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.6-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 91.5-mph EV. Jeremy Pena's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, going from 41.9% on the season to 64.3% in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Lars Nootbaar will hold that advantage in today's game.

Brendan Donovan's batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Brendan Donovan will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Brown in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Brendan Donovan will hold that advantage today. Brendan Donovan has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 95.3-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal average of 92.4-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 97th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.336) provides evidence that Yainer Diaz has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .318 actual wOBA. Checking in at the 95th percentile, Yainer Diaz sits with a .291 batting average since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Jose Altuve is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game. Grading out in the 85th percentile, Jose Altuve has posted a .347 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season. In notching a .300 batting average since the start of last season, Jose Altuve is positioned in the 96th percentile.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Isaac Paredes has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 88.5-mph average to last season's 85-mph average. Isaac Paredes's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 39.7% to 48.9%. In the past week, Isaac Paredes has posted a 26.2° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential. Isaac Paredes has shown strong plate discipline since the start of last season, placing in the 95th percentile with a 1.38 K/BB rate.

Jake Meyers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jake Meyers has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .284 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .322.

Victor Scott will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Brown in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Victor Scott will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Victor Scott has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 92.9-mph average in the past week to his seasonal average of 90.7-mph. Victor Scott's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls recently (18.5° in the past week's worth of games) is significantly better than his 12.4° seasonal figure. Victor Scott has had some very poor luck with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .247 mark is considerably lower than his .283 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Alec Burleson will have the handedness advantage over Hunter Brown today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Alec Burleson will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, Alec Burleson ranks in the 84th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .274.

Mauricio Dubon has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 91.1-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal mark of 83.7-mph. Mauricio Dubon has recorded a .268 batting average since the start of last season, placing in the 81st percentile.

Christian Walker is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Christian Walker has put up a .342 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 83rd percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.