Boston @ Chicago Picks & Props

Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report expects the 5th-lowest temperature on the slate today at 58°. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 16.1-mph in this game, the best of the day for mound aces. The Chicago White Sox infield defense profiles as the 3rd-best among all the teams on the slate today. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jarren Duran today. In the last week, Jarren Duran's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal average of 93.7 mph to 82.4 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert Jr. in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Luis Robert Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. Dingers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Luis Robert Jr. will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's matchup. Luis Robert Jr. will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

Batting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Jacob Amaya will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Jacob Amaya has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Jacob Amaya will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jacob Amaya has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .171 figure is considerably lower than his .199 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chase Meidroth in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Dingers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Hitting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Chase Meidroth will have an edge today. Chase Meidroth will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Dingers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Batting from the opposite that Shane Smith throws from, Rafael Devers will have an advantage today. Rafael Devers has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 13.1% rate last year to 19.4% this year.

Ceddanne Rafaela has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Triston Casas ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Dingers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Batting from the opposite that Shane Smith throws from, Triston Casas will have an advantage in today's matchup. Triston Casas's launch angle this season (20.5°) is significantly higher than his 10.5° angle last season. Since the start of last season, Triston Casas's 12.9% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 89th percentile among his peers.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Andrew Vaughn ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew Vaughn is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. Dingers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Andrew Vaughn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's game. Andrew Vaughn will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Dingers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Brooks Baldwin will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Lenyn Sosa has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Lenyn Sosa will have the handedness advantage over Garrett Crochet in today's game. Lenyn Sosa has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences today. Lenyn Sosa will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.296) provides evidence that Lenyn Sosa has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .251 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Smith throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand in today's game. Wilyer Abreu pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme groundball bats like Wilyer Abreu tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Shane Smith.

Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. Dingers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Miguel Vargas will have the handedness advantage over Garrett Crochet today. Extreme flyball batters like Miguel Vargas tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Garrett Crochet. Miguel Vargas will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell as the 14th-best hitter in the majors when estimating his BABIP talent. Dingers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league.

Dingers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Matt Thaiss will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. When it comes to plate discipline, Matt Thaiss's ability is quite good, sporting a 1.77 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 86th percentile.

Trevor Story's BABIP skill is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trevor Story is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Trevor Story has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences today. Trevor Story is in the 88th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (48% rate since the start of last season). Trevor Story has posted a .268 batting average since the start of last season, placing in the 85th percentile.

Dingers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.4% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball batters like Alex Bregman tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Shane Smith. Alex Bregman has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94-mph average to last year's 89-mph average.