Boston @ Chicago Picks & Props

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jarren Duran today. Jarren Duran's footspeed has decreased this season. His 29.6 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.99 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell as the 13th-best batter in baseball as it relates to his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 8th-best stadium in the league for right-handed batting average. Dingers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Kristian Campbell has been hot recently, putting up a .434 wOBA in the past week. Kristian Campbell is notably quick, placing in the 77th percentile in Sprint Speed at 27.89 ft/sec this year.

The #8 venue in the league for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field. Matt Thaiss has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Matt Thaiss will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Matt Thaiss has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 24.85 ft/sec to 25.82 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). Matt Thaiss has shown good plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile with a 1.78 K/BB rate.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today. The #8 venue in the league for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field. Dingers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Batting from the opposite that Davis Martin throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 8th-best stadium in the league for right-handed batting average. Ceddanne Rafaela has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences today. Ceddanne Rafaela is remarkably quick, placing in the 87th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.33 ft/sec this year.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Triston Casas ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Triston Casas is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. The #8 venue in the league for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field. Dingers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Batting from the opposite that Davis Martin throws from, Triston Casas will have the upper hand in today's game.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The #8 venue in the league for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field. Hitting from the opposite that Davis Martin throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge in today's matchup. Wilyer Abreu pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences today. The Barrel% of Wilyer Abreu has significantly improved, with an increase from 11.2% last year to 17.9% this season.

Lenyn Sosa is penciled in 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 8th-best stadium in the league for right-handed batting average. Lenyn Sosa will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sean Newcomb in today's game. Lenyn Sosa has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Lenyn Sosa will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert Jr. in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Luis Robert Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 8th-best stadium in the league for right-handed batting average. Dingers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Batting from the opposite that Sean Newcomb throws from, Luis Robert Jr. will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 8th-best stadium in the league for right-handed batting average. Jacob Amaya will have the handedness advantage against Sean Newcomb today. Jacob Amaya has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jacob Amaya will hold that advantage today. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jacob Amaya has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .170 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .203.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Andrew Vaughn is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 8th-best stadium in the league for right-handed batting average. Dingers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Andrew Vaughn will hold the platoon advantage over Sean Newcomb in today's game.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Alex Bregman ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 8th-best stadium in the league for right-handed batting average. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Alex Bregman has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last season's 89-mph figure.

Trevor Story is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 8th-best stadium in the league for right-handed batting average. Dingers are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Ranking in the 86th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.31 ft/sec this year, Trevor Story is very fast. With a .258 batting average since the start of last season, Trevor Story grades out in the 78th percentile.

When assessing his BABIP skill, Austin Slater is projected as the 7th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Austin Slater is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 8th-best stadium in the league for right-handed batting average. Batting from the opposite that Sean Newcomb throws from, Austin Slater will have an edge in today's game. Austin Slater has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Miguel Vargas has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

Brooks Baldwin has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Chase Meidroth has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Blake Sabol has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 8 games.

Omar Narvaez has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 4 games.