Toronto @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Tropicana Field profiles as the #24 stadium in the game for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching. Yariel Rodriguez will hold the platoon advantage over Yandy Diaz in today's game. In the past 7 days, Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal mark of 91.9 mph to 84.3 mph. Compared to his seasonal mark of 4.2°, Yandy Diaz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-2.5°) over the past two weeks.

Tropicana Field profiles as the #24 stadium in the game for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching. Taj Bradley will have the handedness advantage over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in today's game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 9th-deepest CF fences today. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.

Jose Siri's BABIP talent is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Siri pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Siri will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Jose Siri has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .278 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .319 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Leo Jimenez in the 85th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Leo Jimenez has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Leo Jimenez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 96.9-mph average over the past week to his seasonal EV of 91-mph. Over the last 14 days, Leo Jimenez's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (11.5°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 15.6°. Leo Jimenez has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .217 rate is considerably lower than his .239 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Davis Schneider ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Davis Schneider pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Over the last 14 days, Davis Schneider has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 12.1% to 20%. In the last week's worth of games, Davis Schneider's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 97.1-mph in recent games. Davis Schneider's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, increasing from 21.9% on the season to 50% in the last two weeks.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Christopher Morel ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (38% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Christopher Morel will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Christopher Morel has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 105.6-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 94.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. Junior Caminero will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. In the last 7 days, Junior Caminero's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.4% up to 27.3%. Over the past week, Junior Caminero's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.1-mph over the course of the season to 100.3-mph in recent games.

Batting from the opposite that Yariel Rodriguez throws from, Ben Rortvedt will have the upper hand in today's game. Ben Rortvedt has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Ben Rortvedt will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. George Springer is penciled in 1st in the lineup today. Among all major league parks, Tropicana Field's LF fences are the 5th-shallowest. George Springer's launch angle recently (22.5° over the last 7 days) is a significant increase over his 8.7° seasonal figure. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, George Springer has had some very poor luck this year. His .300 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .355.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Loperfido in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Joey Loperfido will have the upper hand today. Joey Loperfido has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 91.1-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 88.3-mph mark. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.3°, Joey Loperfido has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 16.8° mark in the last two weeks. Joey Loperfido has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 17° figure is among the highest in baseball this year (80th percentile).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Alejandro Kirk has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Alejandro Kirk has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph to 96.3-mph in the last 7 days. There has been a significant improvement in Alejandro Kirk's launch angle from last season's 6.2° to 10° this season.

Taylor Walls will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.1°, Taylor Walls has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 25.3° figure in the last two weeks. Taylor Walls's 19.1° launch angle (an advanced metric to evaluate a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most flyball-inducing in MLB: 87th percentile. Posting a 1.92 K/BB rate this year, Taylor Walls has demonstrated impressive plate discipline, grading out in the 84th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Horwitz in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Spencer Horwitz is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Spencer Horwitz will have an advantage in today's game. Spencer Horwitz has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Spencer Horwitz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 20.4% on the season to 30% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Ernie Clement pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.5% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Ernie Clement's launch angle lately (31.2° in the last 7 days) is considerably better than his 16.5° seasonal angle.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today. Batting from the opposite that Yariel Rodriguez throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand in today's game. Brandon Lowe will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Brandon Lowe's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 17.6% to 20.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 75th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Nathan Lukes is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. Nathan Lukes will have the handedness advantage over Taj Bradley today. Nathan Lukes has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Nathan Lukes has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .367.

Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. The 5th-shallowest right field fences among all parks are found in Tropicana Field. Jonathan Aranda will have the handedness advantage over Yariel Rodriguez in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past two weeks, Jonathan Aranda's 57.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 50%.

The 5th-shallowest right field fences among all parks are found in Tropicana Field. Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Addison Barger will have an edge in today's game. Addison Barger has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 95.5-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 92-mph. In the last week, Addison Barger's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.6%. Addison Barger has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .269 figure is considerably lower than his .307 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.