Boston @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The #5 field in the game for suppressing batting average to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. The weather forecast projects the 3rd-most favorable pitching conditions of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Compared to his seasonal angle of 9.3°, Jarren Duran has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4.8°) in the last two weeks. Despite posting a .360 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jarren Duran has been lucky given the .021 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .339.

The weather forecast projects the 3rd-most favorable pitching conditions of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Considering Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Yandy Diaz will be at a tremendous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in this game. Extreme flyball batters like Yandy Diaz tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Houck. In the past 7 days, Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal figure of 91.9 mph to 76 mph. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (1°) is quite a bit worse than his 4.9° angle last year.

Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Triston Casas will have an advantage in today's game. Triston Casas has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.6-mph to 103-mph over the past 7 days. Triston Casas has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.6-mph average to last year's 95.1-mph EV. Triston Casas has recorded a .328 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 79th percentile. Grading out in the 81st percentile, Triston Casas sits with a .316 BABIP since the start of last season.

Because of Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Austin Shenton will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today. Austin Shenton has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Austin Shenton will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The 4th-shallowest left field dimensions in MLB are found in Tropicana Field.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. Tyler O'Neill pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Over the last 14 days, Tyler O'Neill has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 17.3% to 28%. Tyler O'Neill has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.3-mph average to last year's 92.8-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Junior Caminero will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. In the past week, Junior Caminero's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.9% up to 15%. Junior Caminero has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.3-mph to 93.2-mph in the past week's worth of games.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Christopher Morel ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Christopher Morel will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Christopher Morel has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 11% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Connor Wong is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. The 4th-shallowest left field dimensions in MLB are found in Tropicana Field. Connor Wong has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 5.9% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the last two weeks. Connor Wong's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, rising from 39.5% on the season to 57.7% in the past 14 days.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today. Considering Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Brandon Lowe will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Brandon Lowe usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage today.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 4th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today's game. Masataka Yoshida's launch angle this year (10°) is significantly higher than his 3.9° angle last season. Masataka Yoshida's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (31.9° over the past two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 12° seasonal angle.

Extreme flyball bats like Taylor Walls tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Taylor Walls has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 90.1-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 86.6-mph figure. Taylor Walls's launch angle recently (23.9° over the past two weeks) is significantly higher than his 19.5° seasonal angle. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Taylor Walls's true offensive ability to be a .281, indicating that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .037 deviation between that figure and his actual .244 wOBA.

Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Among all stadiums, Tropicana Field's right field fences are the 5th-shallowest. Jonathan Aranda will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tanner Houck in today's matchup... and moreover, Houck has a large platoon split. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.7°, Jonathan Aranda has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 23.1° figure in the past 14 days.

Rafael Devers projects as the 20th-best hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Rafael Devers will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Pepiot in today's matchup. Sporting a .271 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Rafael Devers grades out in the 79th percentile. With a .367 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Rafael Devers finds himself in the 93rd percentile.

The 4th-shallowest left field dimensions in MLB are found in Tropicana Field. There has been a significant improvement in Trevor Story's launch angle from last year's 15.2° to 19° this year. In the last week, Trevor Story's 69.2% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.6%. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Trevor Story has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .259 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .283.

Ben Rortvedt will hold the platoon advantage against Tanner Houck today... and even better, Houck has a large platoon split. Ben Rortvedt has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Ben Rortvedt will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Ben Rortvedt's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (28.4° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is quite a bit higher than his 9.2° seasonal angle. Ben Rortvedt has recorded a .320 BABIP this year, ranking in the 80th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Pepiot in today's game. Wilyer Abreu has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.1-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 91.8-mph average. Grading out in the 82nd percentile, Wilyer Abreu sports a .342 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year. With a .336 BABIP this year, Wilyer Abreu has performed in the 92nd percentile.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.