Boston @ New York Picks & Props

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Tanner Houck throws from, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Ceddanne Rafaela will hold the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon in today's matchup. Among all the teams today, the worst outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Ceddanne Rafaela has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 7.6% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Ceddanne Rafaela's launch angle in recent games (23.5° in the past 14 days) is significantly higher than his 15.3° seasonal angle.

Jasson Dominguez's BABIP talent is projected in the 91st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jasson Dominguez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Bats such as Jasson Dominguez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tanner Houck who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Jasson Dominguez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. In the last 7 days, Jasson Dominguez's maximum exit velocity (a strong indicator of recent form and raw power) has been 108.5-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in baseball.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Juan Soto is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Tanner Houck throws from, Juan Soto will have the upper hand today. Extreme groundball bats like Juan Soto generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Houck. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Juan Soto will hold that advantage today.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Batters such as Masataka Yoshida with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Carlos Rodon who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Among all the teams today, the worst outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Masataka Yoshida's launch angle this year (9.8°) is a significant increase over his 3.9° mark last season. Masataka Yoshida's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls recently (28.5° over the past two weeks) is considerably higher than his 11.5° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Tyler O'Neill will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon today. Among all the teams today, the worst outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Over the last week, Tyler O'Neill's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 17.2% up to 33.3%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 18th-best batter in Major League Baseball. Rafael Devers is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. Among all the teams today, the worst outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Using Statcast metrics, Rafael Devers ranks in the 80th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .271. Rafael Devers has notched a .366 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 92nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. The New York Yankees infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among all the teams on the slate today. Wilyer Abreu has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.2-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 91.7-mph EV. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 93rd percentile with a 19.8° launch angle, which is among the highest angles in the game. Ranking in the 83rd percentile, Wilyer Abreu sports a .342 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

Hitting from the opposite that Tanner Houck throws from, Anthony Rizzo will have the upper hand in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Anthony Rizzo stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Anthony Rizzo will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Anthony Rizzo's launch angle in recent games (37.8° in the past week's worth of games) is a significant increase over his 15° seasonal angle. Anthony Rizzo has been unlucky this year, putting up a .278 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .304 — a .026 discrepancy.

Hitting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Danny Jansen will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Among all the teams today, the worst outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. There has been a significant improvement in Danny Jansen's launch angle from last year's 19.5° to 22.5° this year. Despite posting a .299 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Danny Jansen has had some very poor luck given the .018 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317. As it relates to plate discipline, Danny Jansen's skill is quite strong, posting a 1.46 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 94th percentile.

Jose Trevino will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Jose Trevino has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 88.5-mph average to last season's 85.8-mph average. Jose Trevino has shown favorable plate discipline this year, placing in the 83rd percentile with a 1.98 K/BB rate.

Hitting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Trevor Story will have the upper hand in today's game. Among all the teams today, the worst outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Trevor Story's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (32.8° in the last two weeks) is significantly higher than his 24.6° seasonal mark. Trevor Story has had some very poor luck with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .253 rate is deflated compared to his .276 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gleyber Torres in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Gleyber Torres is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game. Gleyber Torres has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Gleyber Torres will hold that advantage today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Gleyber Torres's true offensive skill to be a .327, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .021 disparity between that mark and his actual .306 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 75th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Connor Wong is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Connor Wong will have the upper hand today. Among all the teams today, the worst outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Connor Wong has put up a .345 BABIP this year, placing in the 95th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Austin Wells ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Austin Wells has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (58% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Tanner Houck throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup. Austin Wells may have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Austin Wells will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Aaron Judge is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Aaron Judge will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Aaron Judge's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 44.9% on the season to 58.6% in the last 14 days. Aaron Judge has put up a .473 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 100th percentile.

When it comes to his BABIP ability, Jarren Duran is projected as the 15th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Among all the teams today, the worst outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees. Jarren Duran has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94-mph average to last year's 90.3-mph mark. In notching a .283 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Jarren Duran is ranked in the 91st percentile.

As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Oswaldo Cabrera will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Tanner Houck today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Oswaldo Cabrera will hold that advantage today. Oswaldo Cabrera's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 37.3% to 43.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Volpe in the 84th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Anthony Volpe will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Anthony Volpe's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls lately (23.5° in the last week's worth of games) is considerably better than his 9.5° seasonal figure. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.262) may lead us to conclude that Anthony Volpe has had some very poor luck this year with his .248 actual batting average.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Giancarlo Stanton ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Giancarlo Stanton is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Giancarlo Stanton will hold that advantage in today's game. Giancarlo Stanton has made notable strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 15.8% rate last season to 20.9% this season. This season, Giancarlo Stanton has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.1 mph compared to last year's 95.2 mph mark.

Romy Gonzalez's BABIP skill is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Romy Gonzalez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. Batting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Romy Gonzalez will have an advantage in today's game. Romy Gonzalez has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Bats such as Romy Gonzalez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Carlos Rodon who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.