Philadelphia @ Kansas City Picks & Props

Homers are generally less common at venues with deep fences, and Kauffman Stadium has the 2nd-deepest among all major league stadiums. Seth Lugo will hold the platoon advantage over Trea Turner in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals. Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Trea Turner today. Trea Turner's footspeed has declined this season. His 30.23 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.46 ft/sec now.

Bobby Witt Jr. has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Despite posting a .417 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bobby Witt Jr. has been very fortunate given the .040 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .377.

Seth Lugo will have the handedness advantage over Nick Castellanos today. In today's game, Nick Castellanos is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.7% rate (75th percentile). Out of every team playing today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Nick Castellanos in today's game. Nick Castellanos has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 7.7% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 4th-best hitter in the game when estimating his BABIP ability. Kauffman Stadium projects as the #2 field in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to more offense. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the schedule today at 93°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 18.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters.

Seth Lugo will have the handedness advantage over Alec Bohm today. Alec Bohm has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team playing today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Alec Bohm in today's matchup. Alec Bohm has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last 7 days.

In today's matchup, Maikel Garcia is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.9% rate (95th percentile). Maikel Garcia's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 92.7-mph mark last year has dropped to 89.9-mph. In the past 7 days, Maikel Garcia's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16.2%. Ranking in the 7th percentile, Maikel Garcia has notched a .264 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year. Posting a .264 BABIP this year, Maikel Garcia grades out in the 16th percentile.

Bryson Stott is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game. Bryson Stott has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences today. Out of every team playing today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Bryson Stott today. Grading out in the 17th percentile, Bryson Stott has put up a .265 BABIP this year.

Freddy Fermin pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 86th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 4th-deepest LF fences today. Freddy Fermin's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 89.6-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 61.6-mph over the past week. Last season, Freddy Fermin had a launch angle of 12.2° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this season he experienced a significant decline to just 7°. Over the past week, Freddy Fermin's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.4%. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Freddy Fermin has had some very good luck this year. His .338 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .280.

Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.254) suggests that Salvador Perez has experienced some positive variance this year with his .274 actual batting average.

Kauffman Stadium projects as the #2 field in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to more offense. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the schedule today at 93°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 18.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Garrett Stubbs will have an edge in today's game.

Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #2 venue in the game for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to more offense. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the schedule today at 93°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 18.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters. Johan Rojas has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 90.3-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 85.4-mph average.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 20th-best hitter in the game. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. Kauffman Stadium projects as the #2 field in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to more offense. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the schedule today at 93°.

Bryce Harper has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals. Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Bryce Harper in today's matchup. Bryce Harper has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 10.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past 14 days. Bryce Harper's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, going from 13% on the season to 0% in the past week.

Vinnie Pasquantino will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's game. Vinnie Pasquantino pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's deepest RF fences today. In the last week, Vinnie Pasquantino's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.3% down to 0%. Vinnie Pasquantino's exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 92.5-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 82.2-mph in the past 7 days. Over the last two weeks, Vinnie Pasquantino's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (-0.3°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 9.4°.

Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #2 venue in the game for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to more offense. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the schedule today at 93°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 18.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters. Hitting from the same side that Zack Wheeler throws from, Paul DeJong will not have the upper hand in today's matchup.

Hunter Renfroe is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #2 venue in the game for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to more offense. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the schedule today at 93°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 18.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, MJ Melendez ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Kauffman Stadium projects as the #2 field in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to more offense. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the schedule today at 93°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 18.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dairon Blanco in the 84th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #2 venue in the game for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to more offense. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the schedule today at 93°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 18.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters.

Garrett Hampson's BABIP ability is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #2 venue in the game for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in the majors, which generally leads to more offense. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the hottest weather on the schedule today at 93°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 18.4-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for batters.