Tampa Bay @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Shane Baz will hold the platoon advantage against Masyn Winn in today's matchup. Masyn Winn has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Among every team on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 89.7-mph figure last year has fallen to 87.3-mph. In the last week, Masyn Winn's 29.2% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 43.8%.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Victor Scott will have an edge in today's game. Victor Scott hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Victor Scott will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Ranking in the 100th percentile for Sprint Speed at 30.38 ft/sec this year, Victor Scott is very toolsy.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Nolan Gorman will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Nolan Gorman's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (25.6°) is significantly better than his 21.5° mark last season. Nolan Gorman's 17.3% Barrel% (a reliable standard to measure power) is in the 97th percentile this year.

Dylan Carlson is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Last year, Dylan Carlson had an average launch angle of 15° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 24.4°. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Dylan Carlson's true offensive ability to be a .305, providing some evidence that he has been unlucky this year given the .055 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .250 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Jose Siri has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (90% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 4th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 83°. Jose Siri has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph to 96.7-mph over the past 7 days. Jose Siri has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last year's 94-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Curtis Mead in the 78th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Curtis Mead has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .278 mark is a good deal lower than his .322 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Launch angles in the range of -4° to 26° tend to become base hits at a high rate; Curtis Mead and his 46.1% since the start of last season rank in the 80th percentile by this measure. Curtis Mead has posted a .340 BABIP since the start of last season, checking in at the 88th percentile.

Hitting from the same side that Kyle Gibson throws from, Yandy Diaz encounters a tough challenge in today's game. Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's game. Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Yandy Diaz's launch angle in recent games (-15.3° in the past week's worth of games) is significantly worse than his 4° seasonal mark. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (-0.3°) is a significant dropoff from his 4.9° figure last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Batting from the opposite that Kyle Gibson throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Brandon Lowe hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 4th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 83°. Jose Caballero has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 98.1-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 89.6-mph. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.1°, Jose Caballero has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 47° mark over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an advantage in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Brendan Donovan will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an edge in today's matchup. Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Lars Nootbaar will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Paul Goldschmidt will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Last year, Paul Goldschmidt had an average launch angle of 12.6° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 16.2°. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Paul Goldschmidt's true offensive skill to be a .334, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .042 difference between that mark and his actual .292 wOBA.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Christopher Morel ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. In the last week's worth of games, Christopher Morel's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.2% up to 33.3%. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Christopher Morel's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.7-mph over the course of the season to 106.1-mph in recent games.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Ben Rortvedt will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Gibson in today's game. Ben Rortvedt has recorded a .348 BABIP this year, placing in the 89th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Willson Contreras will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Posting a .370 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Willson Contreras has performed in the 92nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Over the last week, Taylor Walls's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 2.8% up to 12.5%. In the past week's worth of games, Taylor Walls's 62.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 34.7%. Taylor Walls has been unlucky this year, putting up a .225 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .280 — a .055 disparity.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°. Nolan Arenado will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Nolan Arenado's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, going from 43.3% on the season to 57.9% over the last 7 days.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Kameron Misner has gone over 0.5 in 1 of his last 8 games.