Boston @ Texas Picks & Props

The #1 park in the majors for suppressing BABIP to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field. Globe Life Field has the 6th-deepest centerfield fences in the league. The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -12° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Typically, hitters like Masataka Yoshida who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Nathan Eovaldi. Masataka Yoshida's launch angle this season (9.2°) is quite a bit better than his 3.9° angle last season. Masataka Yoshida has hit one of the hardest balls in Major League Baseball in the past week — 111.1-mph — which is a strong measure of recent form and raw power. Based on Statcast data, Masataka Yoshida grades out in the 80th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .267.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 15th-best hitter in the majors. Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Sporting a .409 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Rafael Devers has performed in the 98th percentile. Placing in the 94th percentile, Rafael Devers has posted a .303 batting average this year.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Nick Sogard will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side against Nathan Eovaldi in today's matchup.

When estimating his BABIP skill, Jarren Duran is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Jarren Duran has recorded a .288 Expected Batting Average this year, placing in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Grading out in the 89th percentile, Jarren Duran sports a .358 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year. Jarren Duran has posted a .351 BABIP this year, grading out in the 95th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Marcus Semien ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcus Semien is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game. Extreme flyball hitters like Marcus Semien tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Marcus Semien will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Nathan Eovaldi will hold the platoon advantage over Tyler O'Neill today. This season, Tyler O'Neill has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98 mph compared to last year's 92.8 mph mark. Last season, Tyler O'Neill had an average launch angle of 15.8° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 22.7°.

Josh Smith is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today. Josh Smith will have the handedness advantage over Tanner Houck in today's game. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today. Josh Smith will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Over the last two weeks, Josh Smith has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 19.1° compared to his seasonal mark of 12.9°.

Connor Wong's BABIP skill is projected in the 76th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Connor Wong is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Batting from the same side that Nathan Eovaldi throws from, Connor Wong will not have the upper hand today. Checking in at the 86th percentile, Connor Wong sports a .354 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year. With a .360 BABIP this year, Connor Wong grades out in the 97th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Batting from the same side that Nathan Eovaldi throws from, Rob Refsnyder will not have the upper hand in today's game. Rob Refsnyder has made significant gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 3.9% rate last season to 9.6% this year. Rob Refsnyder has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 97.3-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 91.4-mph.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wyatt Langford is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Wyatt Langford will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the past 7 days, Wyatt Langford's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.3% up to 12.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Nathaniel Lowe is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. Batting from the opposite that Tanner Houck throws from, Nathaniel Lowe will have an edge in today's game. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today. Nathaniel Lowe will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today. Leody Taveras will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Leody Taveras has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 94.7-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal mark of 89.8-mph. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.263) provides evidence that Leody Taveras has been unlucky this year with his .226 actual batting average.

Hitting from the same side that Nathan Eovaldi throws from, Danny Jansen will be at a disadvantage today. Danny Jansen's launch angle this season (23.1°) is considerably better than his 19.5° angle last year. Over the past 14 days, Danny Jansen has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 25° compared to his seasonal mark of 18°. When it comes to plate discipline, Danny Jansen's talent is quite impressive, putting up a 1.58 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 90th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Romy Gonzalez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. Nathan Eovaldi will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Romy Gonzalez today. Extreme flyball hitters like Romy Gonzalez tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi. Romy Gonzalez has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 7.8% seasonal rate to 17.4% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Hitting from the same side that Nathan Eovaldi throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela has a tough challenge in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.1°, Ceddanne Rafaela has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 20.4° figure in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Adolis Garcia is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today. Adolis Garcia will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Adolis Garcia has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.9-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 91.7-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Duran in the 79th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today. Ezequiel Duran will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Checking in at the 75th percentile, Ezequiel Duran has posted a .318 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today. Josh Jung will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Since the start of last season, Josh Jung's 11.8% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 83rd percentile among his peers. Since the start of last season, Josh Jung has an average exit velocity of 91.5 mph, which ranks among the elite in the league at the 91st percentile.

The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Jonah Heim will hold that advantage in today's game.