Chicago @ St. Louis Picks & Props

This year, Alec Burleson has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 11% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alec Burleson's true offensive skill to be a .314, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .026 difference between that mark and his actual .340 wOBA.

Homers are generally less common at parks with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest in the majors. Batting from the same side that Jameson Taillon throws from, Masyn Winn has a tough challenge in today's matchup. Masyn Winn's average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 85.9-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 81.5-mph in the last week. From last season to this one, Masyn Winn's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 89.7 mph to 86 mph. In the last week's worth of games, Masyn Winn's 12.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 44.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Christopher Morel is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. In the last week's worth of games, Christopher Morel's 30.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.4%.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Dansby Swanson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Dansby Swanson has made substantial strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 9.8% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the last week's worth of games.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Batting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an edge in today's matchup. Nolan Gorman will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage today.

Batting from the same side that Miles Mikolas throws from, Nico Hoerner meets a tough challenge in today's game. Nico Hoerner has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's game. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nico Hoerner in today's game. In the past week, Nico Hoerner's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal EV of 89.1 mph to 83.6 mph. Compared to his seasonal mark of 9.5°, Nico Hoerner has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-1.4°) over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Michael Busch is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Michael Busch will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Miles Mikolas today. Michael Busch is in the 95th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (21.1% rate this year).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Ian Happ is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. The switch-hitting Ian Happ will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Miles Mikolas.

Hitting from the same side that Miles Mikolas throws from, Seiya Suzuki will be at a disadvantage today. Seiya Suzuki will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. In the past week's worth of games, Seiya Suzuki's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17.9%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.244) implies that Seiya Suzuki has been lucky this year with his .266 actual batting average.

Pete Crow-Armstrong's BABIP skill is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the handedness advantage against Miles Mikolas in today's matchup. As it relates to his batting average, Pete Crow-Armstrong has experienced some negative variance this year. His .194 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .244.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Pedro Pages hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's game. Pedro Pages's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 37.1% on the season to 57.1% over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Hitting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an advantage in today's matchup. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miles Mastrobuoni in the 75th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Miles Mastrobuoni will have the handedness advantage over Miles Mikolas today. Miles Mastrobuoni hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Paul Goldschmidt will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today. Nolan Arenado's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (15.6°) is quite a bit higher than his 12.2° mark last season.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Tomas Nido's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved recently, going from 55.2% on the season to 62.5% over the last 14 days. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Tomas Nido has suffered from bad luck this year. His .232 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .314.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Hitting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Brandon Crawford will have an edge in today's game. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Crawford can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Brandon Crawford hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Brendan Donovan's batting average talent is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats. Batting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an advantage today.