Boston @ Miami Picks & Props

The #3 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Among all major league parks, LoanDepot Park's centerfield dimensions are the 5th-shallowest. Ali Sanchez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Jarren Duran has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jarren Duran in today's game. Despite posting a .357 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jarren Duran has had some very good luck given the .024 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .333.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The #3 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Among all major league parks, LoanDepot Park's centerfield dimensions are the 5th-shallowest. Ceddanne Rafaela has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 6.2% seasonal rate to 15.4% in the past week's worth of games. Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98.7-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 93.2-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 78th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The #3 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Among all major league parks, LoanDepot Park's centerfield dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. The Miami Marlins outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today. Connor Wong has notched a .370 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 90th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. The #3 park in the league for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage against Kyle Tyler today. Over the last week, Masataka Yoshida's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.1-mph over the course of the season to 97.5-mph in recent games. Over the last week, Masataka Yoshida's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44%.

Xavier Edwards's batting average skill is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #3 park in the league for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Xavier Edwards will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

The #3 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Emmanuel Rivera will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Emmanuel Rivera has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 96.4-mph average over the past week to his seasonal figure of 88.7-mph. In the last 7 days, Emmanuel Rivera's 71.4% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.9%. Emmanuel Rivera has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .261 figure is a good deal lower than his .290 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The #3 park in the league for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Tyler throws from, Reese McGuire will have an edge today. Reese McGuire has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 3.1% rate last year to 8.2% this season. Compared to last year, Reese McGuire has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.7% to 17.6% this season. Reese McGuire has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .265 mark is quite a bit lower than his .303 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Josh Bell ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Josh Bell is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. The #3 park in the league for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Josh Bell will hold that advantage in today's game. There has been a significant improvement in Josh Bell's launch angle from last season's 8.7° to 12.1° this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Bryan De La Cruz is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today. The #3 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Bryan De La Cruz will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Over the last 7 days, Bryan De La Cruz's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.4-mph over the course of the season to 100.5-mph of late.

Rafael Devers projects as the 17th-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. The #3 park in the league for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Batting from the opposite that Kyle Tyler throws from, Rafael Devers will have an edge in today's game. Rafael Devers has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.2-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 93.7-mph average.

David Hamilton has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (80% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. The #3 park in the league for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Tyler throws from, David Hamilton will have an advantage today. David Hamilton is in the 98th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (51.3% rate this year). Ranking in the 92nd percentile for Sprint Speed at 29.03 ft/sec this year, David Hamilton is remarkably fast.

Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The #3 park in the league for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Batting from the opposite that Kyle Tyler throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand in today's game. Wilyer Abreu hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 85th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Wilyer Abreu has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 98.8-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal mark of 93.4-mph.

The #3 park in the league for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Tyler throws from, Dominic Smith will have an edge in today's game. Dominic Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Dominic Smith has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 6.5% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last week. In the past week's worth of games, Dominic Smith's 11.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18.2%.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game. The #3 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Tyler O'Neill has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.3-mph average to last season's 92.8-mph figure. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Tyler O'Neill's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 98.3-mph over the course of the season to 106.6-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Jake Burger is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. The #3 ballpark in baseball for boosting base hits to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Jake Burger will hold that advantage today. Jake Burger has been unlucky this year, posting a .267 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .325 — a .058 disparity.

The #3 park in the league for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Vidal Brujan will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Nick Pivetta in today's matchup. Vidal Brujan will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The #3 park in the league for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Jesus Sanchez will hold that advantage in today's game.

Otto Lopez has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.