St. Louis @ Pittsburgh Picks & Props

PNC Park has the 8th-most fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally bad for long-balls. Masyn Winn will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. Masyn Winn's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 86.1-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 81.2-mph in the last week. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 89.7-mph EV last year has decreased to 85.9-mph. Masyn Winn has been lucky this year, putting up a .326 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .286 — a .040 disparity.

PNC Park has the 8th-most fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally bad for long-balls. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Willson Contreras in today's game. In the last 14 days, Willson Contreras's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.2% down to 0%. In the last two weeks, Willson Contreras's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal average of 95.1 mph to 82 mph. Over the past 14 days, Willson Contreras's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 6th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Today, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.5% rate (100th percentile). Nolan Arenado will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Nolan Arenado's average exit velocity has declined this year; his 88.8-mph EV last year has decreased to 85-mph. Nolan Arenado has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85-mph dropping to 79.1-mph in the past two weeks.

PNC Park has the 8th-most fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally bad for long-balls. Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Paul Goldschmidt today. In terms of plate discipline, Paul Goldschmidt's ability is quite poor, putting up a 3.63 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 23rd percentile.

Oneil Cruz's BABIP talent is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante today.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Jack Suwinski will hold the platoon advantage over Andre Pallante today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Jack Suwinski will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last 7 days, Jack Suwinski's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.4%.

Martin Perez will hold the platoon advantage against Alec Burleson today. Today, Alec Burleson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34% rate (78th percentile). Alec Burleson will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. In the last week, Alec Burleson's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.1% down to 0%. Alec Burleson has been lucky this year, putting up a .333 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .021 discrepancy.

Edward Olivares's batting average skill is projected to be in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Edward Olivares is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Edward Olivares will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest among every team today. Brendan Donovan has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 5.8% seasonal rate to 13.8% over the last two weeks.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Bryan Reynolds ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Andre Pallante.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Andrew McCutchen is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Andrew McCutchen will hold that advantage today.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Martin Perez. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest among every team today. Dylan Carlson's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (27°) is a significant increase over his 15° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke'Bryan Hayes in the 77th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Ke'Bryan Hayes will hold that advantage in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ke'Bryan Hayes's true offensive skill to be a .303, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .032 gap between that figure and his actual .271 wOBA.

Rowdy Tellez is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have an advantage today. Rowdy Tellez will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Connor Joe is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Connor Joe will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Batting from the opposite that Martin Perez throws from, Pedro Pages will have the upper hand today. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest among every team today.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Yasmani Grandal will hold that advantage today. Yasmani Grandal has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.4-mph average to last year's 87.9-mph mark. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.254) provides evidence that Yasmani Grandal has had some very poor luck this year with his .205 actual wOBA.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output. This matchup is expected to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Jose Fermin will hold the platoon advantage against Martin Perez today. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest among every team today. Jose Fermin's quickness has improved this season. His 28.21 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.9 ft/sec now.