San Diego @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the 4th-best pitching conditions on the slate today. The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of every team on the slate today. Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, compiling a .353 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .330 — a .023 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Hamilton in the 20th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the 4th-best pitching conditions on the slate today. The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of every team on the slate today. Over the past week, David Hamilton's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal figure of 87 mph to 61.8 mph.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the 4th-best pitching conditions on the slate today. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jake Cronenworth in today's matchup.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the 4th-best pitching conditions on the slate today. Luis Arraez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 89.6-mph mark last year has fallen off to 86.8-mph. Compared to his seasonal mark of 11.3°, Luis Arraez has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (5.8°) in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the 4th-best pitching conditions on the slate today. The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of every team on the slate today. Rafael Devers's launch angle of late (3.1° in the last 7 days) is considerably worse than his 13.3° seasonal figure. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Rafael Devers has been very fortunate this year. His .374 mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .336.

Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the 4th-best pitching conditions on the slate today. Jackson Merrill will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. In the last week's worth of games, Jackson Merrill's 25% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 45.7%.

Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the 4th-best pitching conditions on the slate today. The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of every team on the slate today. San Diego's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Masataka Yoshida, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

Donovan Solano's BABIP skill is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Donovan Solano is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in MLB for righty base hits. Donovan Solano hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Over the last two weeks, Donovan Solano's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.3-mph over the course of the season to 95.1-mph of late.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Manny Machado ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in MLB for righty base hits. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest. With a .328 BABIP this year, Manny Machado is positioned in the 81st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 87th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in MLB for righty base hits. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last week's worth of games, Ceddanne Rafaela's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.3-mph over the course of the season to 107.9-mph in recent games.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in MLB for righty base hits. Tyler O'Neill pulls many of his flyballs (33.9% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Tyler O'Neill will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in MLB for righty base hits. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest. Connor Wong will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Connor Wong has notched a .380 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile.

Jurickson Profar is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in baseball for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jurickson Profar pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.2% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Jurickson Profar's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 42% to 51.6%. As it relates to plate discipline, Jurickson Profar's skill is quite strong, posting a 1.17 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 96th percentile.

Enmanuel Valdez will hold the platoon advantage over Randy Vasquez in today's game. Enmanuel Valdez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Enmanuel Valdez will hold that advantage in today's game. Enmanuel Valdez has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 13% seasonal rate to 20% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Enmanuel Valdez's launch angle this year (18.9°) is significantly higher than his 10.4° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ha-seong Kim in the 77th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in MLB for righty base hits. Ha-seong Kim hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Ha-seong Kim has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .215 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .254 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Ha-seong Kim has exhibited impressive plate discipline this year, grading out in the 98th percentile with a 1.11 K/BB rate.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in baseball for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The 3rd-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge in today's game.

Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in baseball for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Dominic Smith will have the upper hand in today's game. Dominic Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Dominic Smith will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Dominic Smith has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 6.4% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the last week.

Fenway Park ranks as the #6 field in baseball for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, David Peralta will have an advantage in today's matchup. David Peralta will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP. David Peralta hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. David Peralta's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 46.8% to 64.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in MLB for righty base hits. Kyle Higashioka pulls a lot of his flyballs (39% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today. Kyle Higashioka's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 17.5% to 21.7%. Kyle Higashioka's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, going from 21.7% on the season to 30.8% in the last two weeks' worth of games.