Cincinnati @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Busch Stadium has the 5th-most fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally bad for dingers. Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Christian Encarnacion-Strand in today's matchup. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been lucky this year, putting up a .354 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .332 — a .022 gap. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has shown bad plate discipline this year, grading out in the 18th percentile with a 5.28 K/BB rate.

Nick Senzel has been pulled from the game early 27% of the time when starting against a southpaw this year. Busch Stadium has the 5th-most fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally bad for dingers. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Nick Senzel in today's matchup. Nick Senzel's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 15.8% to 11.2%. Sporting a .302 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Nick Senzel is ranked in the 19th percentile for hitting ability.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Lars Nootbaar will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Connor Phillips in today's game. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Ivan Herrera has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today. Ivan Herrera will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today. Luken Baker will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. In the past week's worth of games, Luken Baker has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 13.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 9.3°. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.301) suggests that Luken Baker has suffered from bad luck this year with his .272 actual wOBA.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage today. Masyn Winn has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 2.2% seasonal rate to 10% in the past week's worth of games. Masyn Winn has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 88.2-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 86-mph mark.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today. Jose Fermin will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Jose Fermin is notably athletic, grading out in the 75th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.32 ft/sec this year.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Stuart Fairchild will hold the platoon advantage against Drew Rom in today's game. Ranking in the 92nd percentile for Sprint Speed at 29.2 ft/sec this year, Stuart Fairchild is remarkably fast.

When it comes to his BABIP skill, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Elly De La Cruz has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 8.1% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the past week's worth of games. Over the last week, Elly De La Cruz's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.4-mph over the course of the season to 113.8-mph recently.

Today, Tyler Stephenson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.1% rate (94th percentile). Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Tyler Stephenson in today's game. Tyler Stephenson has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last week.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). In the past 7 days, T.J. Friedl's 72.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 40.1%. Posting a 1.92 K/BB rate this year, T.J. Friedl has shown strong plate discipline, checking in at the 79th percentile. Checking in at the 83rd percentile, T.J. Friedl sports a .276 batting average this year.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Richie Palacios will have the handedness advantage against Connor Phillips in today's matchup. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Richie Palacios will hold that advantage in today's game. As it relates to plate discipline, Richie Palacios's ability is quite impressive, putting up a 2.34 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 75th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Jordan Walker has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage today.

The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Juniel Querecuto will hold that advantage today.