Boston @ Texas Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage over Jon Gray today. Masataka Yoshida has notched a .279 batting average this year, ranking in the 87th percentile.

Globe Life Field grades out as the #26 field in MLB for left-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast the 5th-best pitching conditions of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Corey Seager hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest CF fences today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Corey Seager's true offensive skill to be a .360, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .070 difference between that mark and his actual .430 wOBA.

Luis Urias has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.6-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 85.4-mph mark. Sporting a 1.86 K/BB rate this year, Luis Urias has displayed strong plate discipline, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

Evan Carter will have the handedness advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup. Evan Carter will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Evan Carter has displayed some good exit velocity benchmarks of late, averaging 102.4-mph on his flyballs in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Trevor Story's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls of late (28.5° over the last two weeks) is considerably higher than his 17.3° seasonal angle. Trevor Story's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 41.4% to 48.7%. Trevor Story has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .227 rate is a fair amount lower than his .303 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adolis Garcia is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Adolis Garcia will hold that advantage today. In notching a .353 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Adolis Garcia is ranked in the 79th percentile for hitting ability. Adolis Garcia's 15.3% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) is in the 93rd percentile this year.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Jonah Heim will hold that advantage today. Jonah Heim has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 104.8-mph average over the past week to his seasonal mark of 91.7-mph. Jonah Heim's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 13.4% to 18.2%.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.306) may lead us to conclude that Bobby Dalbec has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .290 actual wOBA. Since the start of last season, Bobby Dalbec's 12.3% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 87th percentile among his peers. Ranked in the 85th percentile, Bobby Dalbec has one of the highest average exit velocities in the game since the start of last season (90.7-mph). Checking in at the 85th percentile of THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season, Bobby Dalbec demonstrated exceptional skill in hitting the ball to all fields - a crucial skill for achieving a high batting average.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Mitch Garver ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Bats such as Mitch Garver with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brayan Bello who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Mitch Garver will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. The Barrel% of Mitch Garver has significantly improved, with an increase from 8.8% last year to 13.8% this season. Mitch Garver's launch angle in recent games (22.9° in the last two weeks) is considerably better than his 19.1° seasonal figure.

Reese McGuire will have the handedness advantage over Jon Gray in today's game. Reese McGuire has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 91.9-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 89.1-mph. Reese McGuire's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, rising from 48.7% on the season to 57.1% over the past 7 days. Sporting a .353 BABIP since the start of last season, Reese McGuire has performed in the 98th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Justin Turner ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Justin Turner is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today. Justin Turner has posted a .354 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 79th percentile. Posting a .278 batting average this year, Justin Turner finds himself in the 86th percentile.

Wilyer Abreu has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.