Baltimore @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Gunnar Henderson in today's matchup. Over the past two weeks, Gunnar Henderson's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (1°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 10.2°.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output. Out of every team playing today, the best infield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles. Over the past 14 days, Rafael Devers's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12% down to 0%. Rafael Devers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last year to this one, decreasing from 42.2% to 37%. In terms of his batting average, Rafael Devers has had positive variance on his side this year. His .269 BA has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .250.

Fenway Park projects as the #2 field in MLB for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the league, Fenway Park's right field fences are the 2nd-shallowest. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Adam Frazier will have the handedness advantage over Tanner Houck in today's game. Among every team in action today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 78th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The #2 field in baseball for boosting batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Triston Casas is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season. Fenway Park projects as the #2 field in MLB for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Triston Casas will have the handedness advantage against Kyle Bradish in today's game.

Ryan O'Hearn has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 20% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output. Ryan O'Hearn will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. Ryan O'Hearn's launch angle of late (2.9° over the last 14 days) is significantly worse than his 13.3° seasonal angle. Ryan O'Hearn has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .303 BA is inflated compared to his .277 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fenway Park projects as the #2 field in MLB for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage over Kyle Bradish in today's game. Masataka Yoshida has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences today.

Austin Hays's batting average talent is projected to be in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #2 field in baseball for boosting batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Among every team in action today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.

Fenway Park projects as the #2 field in MLB for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the league, Fenway Park's right field fences are the 2nd-shallowest. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Enmanuel Valdez will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Bradish today. Enmanuel Valdez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

Aaron Hicks has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.