New York @ Houston Picks & Props

Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today. Aaron Judge pulls many of his flyballs (33.5% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Aaron Judge has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 101.3-mph average to last season's 99.3-mph average. There has been a significant improvement in Aaron Judge's launch angle from last season's 14.6° to 21.5° this season.

Anthony Volpe is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. The shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park. Extreme groundball hitters like Anthony Volpe tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown. In the past week, Anthony Volpe's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.8% up to 25%. Anthony Volpe has seen a big increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.9-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.8-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Giancarlo Stanton in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Giancarlo Stanton is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. The shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park. In the last week, Giancarlo Stanton's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.5-mph over the course of the season to 111.1-mph in recent games. Giancarlo Stanton has been unlucky this year, posting a .312 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .359 — a .047 deviation.

Oswald Peraza has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88-mph to 93-mph in the last 7 days. In the last week's worth of games, Oswald Peraza's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14%. Oswald Peraza has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .201 figure is quite a bit lower than his .264 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Sporting a 2.19 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Oswald Peraza has demonstrated good plate discipline, checking in at the 78th percentile.

Minute Maid Park has the smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers. Austin Wells will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Brown in today's game. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Austin Wells is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch the entire game. Extreme flyball bats like Austin Wells usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

Everson Pereira's BABIP talent is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park. Everson Pereira has been hot in recent games, compiling a an 18.2% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) over the last week. In the past 14 days, Everson Pereira has averaged an impressive 98.3-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced proxy for home run potential.

Martin Maldonado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Martin Maldonado will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.2°, Martin Maldonado has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 27° angle in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 84th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Chas McCormick will hold that advantage today. Chas McCormick has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 97.5-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal figure of 95.3-mph. Chas McCormick's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (23.2°) is quite a bit higher than his 18.6° angle last season. Sporting a .383 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Chas McCormick is positioned in the 95th percentile.

When estimating his batting average ability, Michael Brantley is projected as the 13th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Michael Brantley will have the handedness advantage over Luis Severino in today's matchup. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Michael Brantley stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Michael Brantley will hold that advantage today. Michael Brantley has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .286 BA is a fair amount lower than his .315 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.