Houston @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to worse offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects the 2nd-most suitable pitching conditions of all games today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for pitchers. Kyle Tucker will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Kyle Tucker has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph dropping to 85.5-mph over the last two weeks.

Adam Duvall is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in baseball for right-handed batting average. Adam Duvall pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Adam Duvall will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Adam Duvall has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last season's 92.5-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in baseball for right-handed batting average. Chas McCormick has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Last season, Chas McCormick had an average launch angle of 18.6° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 23.6°. In the last week's worth of games, Chas McCormick's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 77th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in baseball for right-handed batting average. The shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums are found in Fenway Park. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Trevor Story has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 99.9-mph average over the last week to his seasonal figure of 96.6-mph.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to worse offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects the 2nd-most suitable pitching conditions of all games today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for pitchers. J.P. France will have the handedness advantage over Justin Turner in today's matchup. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Justin Turner has been very fortunate this year. His .370 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .324.

Mauricio Dubon is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to worse offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects the 2nd-most suitable pitching conditions of all games today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for pitchers. Brayan Bello will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mauricio Dubon in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in baseball for right-handed batting average. Martin Maldonado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Martin Maldonado has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph to 99.9-mph over the last week.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to worse offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects the 2nd-most suitable pitching conditions of all games today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for pitchers. Brayan Bello will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Altuve today. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jose Altuve in today's matchup.

Yainer Diaz is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to worse offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects the 2nd-most suitable pitching conditions of all games today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for pitchers. Brayan Bello will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yainer Diaz today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 85th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. The #2 park in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Triston Casas will have the handedness advantage against J.P. France today. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Triston Casas is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever the whole game. Triston Casas pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to worse offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects the 2nd-most suitable pitching conditions of all games today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for pitchers.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to worse offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects the 2nd-most suitable pitching conditions of all games today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for pitchers. Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Yordan Alvarez today. Yordan Alvarez has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 16.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 5.6% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The #2 park in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. David Hamilton will hold the platoon advantage over J.P. France in today's game. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so David Hamilton is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever all game. David Hamilton has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and David Hamilton will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in baseball for right-handed batting average. The shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums are found in Fenway Park. Jeremy Pena has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .262 rate is deflated compared to his .278 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Connor Wong has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.