Houston @ Boston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences among all parks. Jeremy Pena will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in today's matchup... and moreover, Sale has a huge platoon split. Jeremy Pena has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .260 mark is a fair amount lower than his .277 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 83rd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average. Chas McCormick will have the handedness advantage over Chris Sale in today's game... and even more favorably, Sale has a huge platoon split. Chas McCormick has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Last season, Chas McCormick had an average launch angle of 18.6° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 23.6°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences among all parks. Connor Wong will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Connor Wong's launch angle in recent games (10° over the last 7 days) is a significant dropoff from his 14.4° seasonal angle.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which tends to lead to less offense. The weather report forecasts the most favorable pitching weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jose Altuve today. In the past week's worth of games, Jose Altuve's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal figure of 92 mph to 89.7 mph. From last year to this one, Jose Altuve's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 15.7% to 12.7%.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which tends to lead to less offense. The weather report forecasts the most favorable pitching weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 16th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The #2 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Kyle Tucker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average. Alex Bregman will have the handedness advantage against Chris Sale in today's matchup... and moreover, Sale has a huge platoon split. Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.8% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which tends to lead to less offense. The weather report forecasts the most favorable pitching weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Rafael Devers has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 12.9% seasonal rate has fallen to 4.8% in the last 7 days. Over the last week, Rafael Devers's 4.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.8%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.355) may lead us to conclude that Rafael Devers has experienced some positive variance this year with his .368 actual wOBA.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Triston Casas ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The #2 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Triston Casas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristian Javier in today's matchup. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Triston Casas is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the entire game. Triston Casas pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Jake Meyers's BABIP ability is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences among all parks. Jake Meyers will have the handedness advantage over Chris Sale in today's matchup... and even better, Sale has a huge platoon split. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Abreu in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Jose Abreu is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average. Jose Abreu will have the handedness advantage over Chris Sale in today's matchup... and moreover, Sale has a huge platoon split. Jose Abreu hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences among all parks. Yainer Diaz will have the handedness advantage against Chris Sale in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Sale has a huge platoon split. In terms of his batting average, Yainer Diaz has suffered from bad luck this year. His .284 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .307.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average. Luis Urias pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Luis Urias will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Over the last two weeks, Luis Urias has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 28° compared to his seasonal mark of 16.2°. As it relates to plate discipline, Luis Urias's skill is quite strong, putting up a 2.01 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 81st percentile.