St. Louis @ Philadelphia Picks & Props
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STL vs PHI Props
Bryce Harper Total Hits Props • Philadelphia
The #10 park in MLB for suppressing BABIP to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Bryce Harper's launch angle this season (8.4°) is quite a bit worse than his 11.7° angle last season.
Bryson Stott Total Hits Props • Philadelphia
The #10 park in MLB for suppressing BABIP to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Bryson Stott's launch angle this year (10.1°) is significantly worse than his 13.2° figure last year. Despite posting a .338 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bryson Stott has been lucky given the .016 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .322.
Jake Cave Total Hits Props • Philadelphia
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cave in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jake Cave will hold the platoon advantage against Dakota Hudson in today's game. Jake Cave has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Jake Cave will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.
Masyn Winn Total Hits Props • St. Louis
Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among every team playing today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.
Tyler O'Neill Total Hits Props • St. Louis
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among every team playing today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. With a .346 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Tyler O'Neill grades out in the 80th percentile for offensive ability.
Luken Baker Total Hits Props • St. Louis
Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among every team playing today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.
Willson Contreras Total Hits Props • St. Louis
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among every team playing today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.
Brandon Marsh Total Hits Props • Philadelphia
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 3rd-best batter in the majors as it relates to his BABIP talent. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Brandon Marsh will hold the platoon advantage over Dakota Hudson in today's game. Brandon Marsh has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Brandon Marsh will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Kyle Schwarber Total Hits Props • Philadelphia
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Schwarber in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Kyle Schwarber will hold the platoon advantage over Dakota Hudson in today's matchup.
Jordan Walker Total Hits Props • St. Louis
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among every team playing today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. In the last two weeks, Jordan Walker's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 12.8%.
Alec Burleson Total Hits Props • St. Louis
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 77th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Alec Burleson has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's matchup.
Richie Palacios Total Hits Props • St. Louis
The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Richie Palacios will have the handedness advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's matchup. Richie Palacios has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Among every team playing today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Posting a 94-mph average exit velocity in the past week, Richie Palacios has been in great form lately.
STL vs PHI Trends
St. Louis Trends
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 62 away games (+9.10 Units / 13% ROI)
The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 28 away games (+8.99 Units / 27% ROI)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games (+6.30 Units / 22% ROI)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 28 away games (+6.54 Units / 20% ROI)
The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 59 games (+5.75 Units / 8% ROI)
The St. Louis Cardinals have only hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 126 games (-35.65 Units / -22% ROI)
The St. Louis Cardinals have only hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 64 away games (-18.40 Units / -24% ROI)
The St. Louis Cardinals have only hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 78 games (-11.85 Units / -14% ROI)
The St. Louis Cardinals have only hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 64 away games (-11.80 Units / -15% ROI)
Philadelphia Trends
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.84 Units / 28% ROI)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+5.98 Units / 8% ROI)
The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+4.10 Units / 24% ROI)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+2.65 Units / 24% ROI)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.50 Units / 19% ROI)
The Philadelphia Phillies have only covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 57 of their last 128 games (-27.71 Units / -18% ROI)
The Philadelphia Phillies have only hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 53 of their last 128 games (-24.46 Units / -13% ROI)
The Philadelphia Phillies have only hit the Team Total Over in 58 of their last 127 games (-22.35 Units / -15% ROI)
The Philadelphia Phillies have only hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 15 games at home (-6.95 Units / -37% ROI)
The Philadelphia Phillies have only hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 10 games at home (-3.55 Units / -33% ROI)
STL vs PHI Top User Picks
St. Louis Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | alltalc | 7-3-0 | +20715 |
| 2 | Jackson2399 | 7-3-0 | +17017 |
| 3 | deweyay9 | 5-5-0 | +16133 |
| 4 | steelsteve | 5-5-0 | +14620 |
| 5 | mrmac4224 | 6-4-0 | +13709 |
| 6 | Jerrybook | 9-1-0 | +13100 |
| 7 | cheeser | 7-3-0 | +12475 |
| 8 | mikers | 9-1-0 | +12375 |
| 9 | northlv6238 | 7-3-0 | +11580 |
| 10 | YAL15M | 6-4-0 | +10655 |
| All Cardinals Money Leaders | |||
Philadelphia Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | fatrats | 8-2-0 | +21045 |
| 2 | jlayne089 | 5-5-0 | +20155 |
| 3 | jakringle | 4-6-0 | +19940 |
| 4 | Alayne | 9-1-0 | +19467 |
| 5 | dragon5868 | 5-5-0 | +19235 |
| 6 | tonloc4554 | 6-4-0 | +17610 |
| 7 | KSBreview | 6-4-0 | +15789 |
| 8 | JL023 | 3-7-0 | +15387 |
| 9 | DavePaliwoda | 7-3-0 | +15330 |
| 10 | nolajay | 7-3-0 | +15250 |
| All Phillies Money Leaders | |||