Boston @ Houston Picks & Props

Jose Abreu's batting average ability is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Abreu will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Sale has a huge platoon split. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Jose Abreu will hold that advantage in today's game. Jose Abreu has been unlucky this year, posting a .280 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .338 — a .058 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 79th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball. Over the past week, Connor Wong's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9% up to 16.7%. In the last week, Connor Wong's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.7-mph over the course of the season to 101.1-mph lately. By putting up a .349 BABIP this year, Connor Wong is ranked in the 86th percentile.

Luis Urias pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Luis Urias has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 96.7-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 93.2-mph. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Luis Urias has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 29° compared to his seasonal mark of 14.8°. A consistent launch angle is a measure of good hitting, and Luis Urias has been very consistent with his of late, putting up a 40.2° launch angle standard deviation in the last 14 days.

Martin Maldonado will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in today's game... and moreover, Sale has a huge platoon split. Martin Maldonado pulls many of his flyballs (34.9% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Martin Maldonado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Martin Maldonado's launch angle recently (32° in the last week's worth of games) is a significant increase over his 17.1° seasonal angle. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Martin Maldonado's true offensive skill to be a .278, suggesting that he this year given the .029 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .249 wOBA.

Triston Casas has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (79% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Triston Casas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Urquidy in today's matchup. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Triston Casas is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the whole game. In the past 14 days, Triston Casas's 28% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.8%. Based on Statcast metrics, Triston Casas ranks in the 85th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .359.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 16th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Kyle Tucker will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Kyle Tucker has made notable strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 9.9% seasonal rate to 15.6% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Alex Bregman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Sale has a huge platoon split. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.8% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today's game.

Alex Verdugo's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alex Verdugo is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game. Alex Verdugo will have the handedness advantage over Jose Urquidy in today's matchup. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Alex Verdugo is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever the whole game. Alex Verdugo has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage against Jose Urquidy today. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Masataka Yoshida is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever all game. Masataka Yoshida has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 83rd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball. Jake Meyers will have the handedness advantage over Chris Sale in today's game... and even better, Sale has a huge platoon split. Jake Meyers will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.5°, Jake Meyers has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 24.1° mark in the last two weeks.