Boston @ Houston Picks & Props

Mauricio Dubon's batting average ability is projected to be in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among all the teams playing today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Mauricio Dubon will hold that advantage in today's game. Mauricio Dubon has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 86.9-mph average to last year's 84.6-mph figure. Mauricio Dubon has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .266 rate is considerably lower than his .285 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Chas McCormick is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among all the teams playing today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Chas McCormick will hold that advantage in today's game. Chas McCormick's launch angle of late (30.2° in the past week's worth of games) is quite a bit better than his 17.1° seasonal mark.

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -5° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Tanner Houck will have the handedness advantage against Yainer Diaz in today's matchup. Yainer Diaz's launch angle of late (8° over the last two weeks) is significantly lower than his 12° seasonal mark. Yainer Diaz has exhibited weak plate discipline this year, grading out in the 1st percentile with an 8.17 K/BB rate.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best batter in the majors. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest fences in the majors — generally good for homers. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage against Tanner Houck today. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Yordan Alvarez can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 16th-best batter in the game. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. Kyle Tucker will hold the platoon advantage over Tanner Houck in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Alex Verdugo is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Alex Verdugo will have the handedness advantage against Justin Verlander in today's matchup. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Alex Verdugo is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever the whole game. Alex Verdugo has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Martin Maldonado pulls many of his flyballs (34.9% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among all the teams playing today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Martin Maldonado will hold that advantage today. Martin Maldonado's launch angle of late (40° over the past 7 days) is quite a bit better than his 17° seasonal mark. Martin Maldonado has been unlucky this year, notching a .249 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .279 — a .030 discrepancy.

Luis Urias pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team on the slate today. Over the last two weeks, Luis Urias has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 29° compared to his seasonal mark of 14.8°. In terms of plate discipline, Luis Urias's skill is quite strong, sporting a 1.99 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 82nd percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Trevor Story ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The shallowest LF dimensions in MLB are found in Minute Maid Park. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team on the slate today.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Alex Bregman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Alex Bregman pulls many of his flyballs (36.8% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme flyball hitters like Alex Bregman generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The shallowest LF dimensions in MLB are found in Minute Maid Park. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among all the teams playing today. Jeremy Pena will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Jeremy Pena's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, going from 46.2% on the season to 64.5% over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 78th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The shallowest LF dimensions in MLB are found in Minute Maid Park. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team on the slate today. Connor Wong's maximum exit velocity (a reliable stat to evaluate power) has been 113.6 mph this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile. Very few of Connor Wong's struck balls have a "too-high" (above 38°) launch angle, which helps him to avoid hitting into easy pop-up outs. His 20.8% "too-high" rate this year is in the 76th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Jose Altuve is penciled in 1st in the lineup today. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among all the teams playing today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage today.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage over Justin Verlander in today's game. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Masataka Yoshida is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the entire game. Masataka Yoshida has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Adam Duvall is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Adam Duvall pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team on the slate today. There has been a significant improvement in Adam Duvall's launch angle from last year's 23.4° to 29.8° this year. Adam Duvall's launch angle of late (38.5° over the last two weeks) is quite a bit higher than his 29.8° seasonal angle.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 15th-best hitter in MLB. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Rafael Devers will hold the platoon advantage over Justin Verlander in today's game. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch all game. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team on the slate today.

The shallowest LF dimensions in MLB are found in Minute Maid Park. Pablo Reyes has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 90.8-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 88.6-mph EV. Pablo Reyes is in the 81st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (47.1% rate this year). Placing in the 99th percentile, Pablo Reyes has notched a .319 batting average since the start of last season.

Jon Singleton will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tanner Houck in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jon Singleton stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Batters such as Jon Singleton with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tanner Houck who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among all the teams playing today. Jon Singleton will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Triston Casas will have the handedness advantage over Justin Verlander today. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Triston Casas is guaranteed to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever the entire game. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team on the slate today. Triston Casas has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 91.6-mph figure.