Boston @ Houston Picks & Props

Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which tends to lead to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. The Houston Astros outfield defense projects as the strongest out of all the teams today. Masataka Yoshida will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Over the past 14 days, Masataka Yoshida's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (-0.3°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 5.5°.

Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which tends to lead to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. Rafael Devers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 76th percentile) and and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's game. The Houston Astros outfield defense projects as the strongest out of all the teams today. Rafael Devers will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all parks. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game. Yordan Alvarez's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (17.2°) is quite a bit better than his 12.8° mark last year.

Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which tends to lead to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. Over the last two weeks, Jose Altuve's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 92.3 mph to 89.2 mph. Jose Altuve's launch angle this year (11°) is quite a bit worse than his 15.6° figure last year. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jose Altuve's true offensive skill to be a .359, suggesting that he has been lucky this year given the .052 gap between that figure and his actual .411 wOBA.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Chas McCormick ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Chas McCormick is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year. Chas McCormick will have the handedness advantage against James Paxton today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Chas McCormick will hold that advantage today. Last season, Chas McCormick had an average launch angle of 18.6° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 24.2°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Alex Verdugo is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Alex Verdugo will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristian Javier today. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alex Verdugo has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Alex Verdugo has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Martin Maldonado will have the handedness advantage against James Paxton today. Martin Maldonado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Martin Maldonado will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Martin Maldonado's true offensive skill to be a .277, indicating that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .031 disparity between that figure and his actual .246 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 78th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field dimensions among all parks. Connor Wong has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.7-mph mark. Connor Wong's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, increasing from 14.5% on the season to 33.3% in the past 7 days. Sporting a .348 BABIP this year, Connor Wong is positioned in the 85th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Alex Bregman will hold the platoon advantage against James Paxton in today's game. Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Alex Bregman will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field dimensions among all parks. Pablo Reyes has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 90.8-mph over the last 14 days. Pablo Reyes grades out in the 81st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (47.1% rate this year). Pablo Reyes has posted a .319 batting average since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Justin Turner ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Justin Turner is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. In the past week, Justin Turner's 61.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.6%. Justin Turner has posted a .360 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 85th percentile. Placing in the 89th percentile, Justin Turner has put up a .284 batting average this year.

Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which tends to lead to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. James Paxton will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Tucker in today's game. Kyle Tucker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 91st percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

Luis Urias pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. In the past two weeks, Luis Urias has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 29° compared to his seasonal mark of 14.8°. As it relates to plate discipline, Luis Urias's ability is quite strong, putting up a 2.05 K/BB rate since the start of last season while grading out in in the 79th percentile.

Yainer Diaz's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field dimensions among all parks. Yainer Diaz will hold the platoon advantage over James Paxton today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Yainer Diaz has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 13.8% seasonal rate to 20.8% over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field dimensions among all parks. Jake Meyers will have the handedness advantage against James Paxton today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage today. Jake Meyers's launch angle lately (26.6° in the last 14 days) is considerably better than his 12.5° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field dimensions among all parks. Jeremy Pena will hold the platoon advantage over James Paxton today. Jeremy Pena will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Jeremy Pena's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 45.8% on the season to 63% in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Triston Casas has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (79% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Triston Casas will have the handedness advantage over Cristian Javier today. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Triston Casas has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Triston Casas has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 91.6-mph figure.

Adam Duvall is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today. Adam Duvall pulls many of his flyballs (40.2% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Adam Duvall's launch angle this year (29.7°) is a significant increase over his 23.4° figure last year. Adam Duvall's launch angle lately (39.5° over the past 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 29.7° seasonal figure.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Trevor Story ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field dimensions among all parks.

Reese McGuire will hold the platoon advantage against Cristian Javier today. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Reese McGuire can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Checking in at the 96th percentile, Reese McGuire sports a .350 BABIP since the start of last season.

Mauricio Dubon has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Jonathan Singleton has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.