St. Louis @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The #6 venue in the game for suppressing BABIP to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching. Dakota Hudson will hold the platoon advantage over Yandy Diaz in today's game. Extreme groundball batters like Yandy Diaz generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Dakota Hudson. Over the last two weeks, Yandy Diaz's 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 41.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Edman in the 87th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks. The switch-hitting Tommy Edman will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side (0) today against Shawn Armstrong Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.263) may lead us to conclude that Tommy Edman has experienced some negative variance this year with his .237 actual batting average.

The #6 venue in Major League Baseball for suppressing base hits to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching. The switch-hitting Wander Franco will bat from his weak side (0) today against Dakota Hudson

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Jose Siri pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of all the teams playing today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage today. Jose Siri has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 98.5-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal mark of 94.4-mph.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game. Lars Nootbaar has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 9.7% seasonal rate to 17.6% in the last two weeks. Lars Nootbaar has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 99.5-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 95.7-mph. Using Statcast metrics, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 76th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .348.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Shawn Armstrong will have the handedness advantage against Willson Contreras in today's game. Willson Contreras has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.277) implies that Willson Contreras has had some very poor luck this year with his .252 actual batting average.

Paul Goldschmidt projects as the 17th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Shawn Armstrong will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Goldschmidt today. Paul Goldschmidt has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 90th percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .367.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of all the teams playing today. Randy Arozarena will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Randy Arozarena has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 7.9% rate last season to 13.7% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Carlson in the 76th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks. The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson will lose the platoon advantage while batting from his worse side (0) today against Shawn Armstrong Over the past 14 days, Dylan Carlson has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 33° compared to his seasonal mark of 15°. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 40.7% to 46.4%.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of all the teams playing today. Isaac Paredes will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Isaac Paredes's launch angle this season (21.5°) is significantly higher than his 15.5° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Dakota Hudson in today's game. Brandon Lowe pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.7% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. Nolan Gorman pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Nolan Gorman has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 15.8% seasonal rate to 31.6% in the past two weeks. Nolan Gorman has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.2-mph to 96.1-mph over the past week.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Luke Raley ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Luke Raley will have the handedness advantage over Dakota Hudson in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of all the teams playing today. Luke Raley will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Luke Raley has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 91.1-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 80th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. In Major League Baseball, Tropicana Field's right field dimensions are the 5th-shallowest. Alec Burleson has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 6.6% seasonal rate to 27.3% over the last 7 days. Alec Burleson has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.8-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.8-mph figure. Alec Burleson's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 45.4% on the season to 55% in the last two weeks.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Shawn Armstrong will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nolan Arenado in today's matchup. Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.3% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Nolan Arenado has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 107.9-mph average over the last week to his seasonal EV of 92.2-mph. In the past week, Nolan Arenado's 69.2% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.4%.

The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of all the teams playing today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Rene Pinto will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Jordan Walker's BABIP skill is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks. Shawn Armstrong will hold the platoon advantage over Jordan Walker in today's game.

Christian Bethancourt has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Tyler O'Neill has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.