Houston @ Baltimore Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gunnar Henderson in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The #5 ballpark in the majors for boosting BABIP to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 84°. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Gunnar Henderson is guaranteed to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever the entire game.

Posting a 4.07 K/BB rate this year, Ryan Mountcastle has displayed bad plate discipline, placing in the 15th percentile.

Grayson Rodriguez will have the handedness advantage against Jose Altuve in today's game. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.9% — 98th percentile) and but may find it hard to clear MLB's deepest LF fences today. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jose Altuve in today's matchup. Jose Altuve has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.5-mph dropping to 81-mph in the last week's worth of games.

Grayson Rodriguez will hold the platoon advantage over Yainer Diaz today. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. Yainer Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Yainer Diaz has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 12.9% seasonal rate has fallen off to 7.7% in the past 7 days. Yainer Diaz has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph dropping to 88.4-mph in the past week's worth of games.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. The #5 ballpark in the majors for boosting BABIP to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 84°. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over Grayson Rodriguez today.

Anthony Santander is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best field in the league for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 84°. The switch-hitting Anthony Santander will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Framber Valdez. Bats such as Anthony Santander with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Framber Valdez who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 16th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The #5 ballpark in the majors for boosting BABIP to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 84°. Kyle Tucker will hold the platoon advantage over Grayson Rodriguez today.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best field in the league for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 84°. The switch-hitting Adley Rutschman will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Framber Valdez.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 88th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best field in the league for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 84°. Jordan Westburg will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jordan Westburg will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Chas McCormick ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best field in the league for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 83°. Chas McCormick has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today. Chas McCormick has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 99.6-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal EV of 95.2-mph.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best field in the league for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 84°. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alex Bregman's true offensive ability to be a .366, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .032 difference between that figure and his actual .334 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best field in the league for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 84°. Martin Maldonado has made notable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 9.6% seasonal rate to 36.4% over the last 14 days. In the past week, Martin Maldonado's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.7-mph over the course of the season to 108-mph recently. Martin Maldonado's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls recently (27.5° in the last 14 days) is quite a bit higher than his 19.3° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Abreu in the 85th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best field in the league for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 84°. Jose Abreu hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Jose Abreu has been unlucky this year, compiling a .283 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .341 — a .058 disparity.

Jeremy Pena's BABIP talent is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best field in the league for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 84°. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.269) suggests that Jeremy Pena this year with his .244 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Hays in the 78th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Austin Hays is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best field in the league for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 84°. Austin Hays will have the handedness advantage over Framber Valdez today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best field in the league for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 84°. James McCann will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game. James McCann hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and James McCann will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan McKenna in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 83°. Ryan McKenna will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez today. Ryan McKenna has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Ryan McKenna will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best field in the league for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 84°. Jorge Mateo will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez today. Jorge Mateo will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Jorge Mateo has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .266 figure is quite a bit lower than his .324 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best field in the league for righty base hits. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 84°. Ramon Urias will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game. Ramon Urias has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Ramon Urias will hold that advantage in today's game.