Washington @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

16% of the time that Nick Senzel has started against a lefty on the mound this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter. Nick Senzel's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 15.8% to 9.5%. By putting up a .304 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Nick Senzel is ranked in the 21st percentile for hitting ability. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Nick Senzel ranks in the 24th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .232. Nick Senzel's 5% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) grades out in the 22nd percentile this year.

In the last two weeks, Spencer Steer's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%. Spencer Steer's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 89-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 76.9-mph over the last week. Spencer Steer's launch angle of late (1.3° over the last 14 days) is a considerable dropoff from his 16.4° seasonal mark. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Spencer Steer's true offensive talent to be a .326, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .029 disparity between that mark and his actual .355 wOBA.

Kevin Newman has been pinch hit for 11% of the time when starting against a left-handed pitcher this year. Kevin Newman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 87th percentile) and and will be challenged by the league's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's game. Kevin Newman's 2.8% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 7th percentile this year. Grading out in the 3rd percentile, the hardest ball Kevin Newman has made contact with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 105.7 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power ability. In notching a .301 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Kevin Newman is positioned in the 25th percentile.

Graham Ashcraft will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lane Thomas in today's game. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Lane Thomas today. Lane Thomas has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 8.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last week. Lane Thomas has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .287 mark is a good deal higher than his .257 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In terms of plate discipline, Lane Thomas's skill is quite poor, sporting a 4.51 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 11th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in baseball for right-handed batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Alex Call pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.8% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences today. Over the past week, Alex Call's 58.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 38.9%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.311) provides evidence that Alex Call has had bad variance on his side this year with his .280 actual wOBA.

Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Keibert Ruiz pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Keibert Ruiz's 53.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in baseball for right-handed batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Tyler Stephenson will hold the platoon advantage against Patrick Corbin in today's matchup... and moreover, Corbin has a large platoon split. Tyler Stephenson has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Graham Ashcraft will hold the platoon advantage over Joey Meneses in today's game. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Joey Meneses in today's matchup. Joey Meneses's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 93.8-mph average last season has decreased to 90.6-mph. Joey Meneses's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, decreasing from 19.2% to 9.9%. Joey Meneses's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, falling from 9.9% on the season to 5.9% in the last week.

Despite posting a .331 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Elly De La Cruz has experienced some positive variance given the .025 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .306. As it relates to plate discipline, Elly De La Cruz's talent is quite bad, posting a 5.45 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 6th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in baseball for right-handed batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Christian Encarnacion-Strand will hold the platoon advantage over Patrick Corbin today... and even better, Corbin has a large platoon split. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Dominic Smith is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Dominic Smith will hold the platoon advantage over Graham Ashcraft today. Dominic Smith has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°.

CJ Abrams will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. In the last week, CJ Abrams's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.9% down to 0%. CJ Abrams's launch angle of late (-1.2° in the last week) is quite a bit worse than his 12.5° seasonal angle. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates CJ Abrams's true offensive ability to be a .298, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .019 disparity between that figure and his actual .317 wOBA. As it relates to plate discipline, CJ Abrams's talent is quite poor, posting a 4.33 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 14th percentile.

Over the last week, Matt McLain's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.9% down to 0%. Matt McLain's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, going from 15.7% on the season to 0% over the past 7 days. Despite posting a .386 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Matt McLain has had positive variance on his side given the .059 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .327.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 5th-best field in the league for lefty batting average. Among all parks, Great American Ball Park's right field fences are the 8th-shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of the day at 90°. Out of all the teams today, the 6th-worst outfield defense is that of the Washington Nationals. Joey Votto will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Stone Garrett has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.