USA vs Panama Picks and Predictions: All Eyes on Second 45

After a penalty-shootout victory over Canada on Sunday night, the United States will seek to return to another CONCACAF Gold Cup final when they take on Panama Wednesday night.

The USMNT thought they’d scored a late winner, but a penalty near the end of regulation forced extra time, where they had to fight back from a 2-1 deficit to force spot kicks. Their hard-fought win was a stark contrast to Panama’s blowout over Qatar, but their path to the semifinals may not have prepared them for what lies in store.

Will the United States bounce back with a dominant performance, or will Panama continue their unlikely march through the tournament? Find out in our United States vs Panama picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 12. 

USA vs Panama best odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 on July 10, 2023.

USA vs Panama picks and predictions

Panama's path to the Gold Cup semi-final has been a smooth one. Wins over Costa Rica, Martinique, and El Salvador were followed by a 4-0 quarterfinal win over Qatar. But Wednesday night’s match against the United States represents a speed bump — the kind that will rip the entire underside off your car if you carry any speed at all.

To say Panama has bad memories of playing on American soil would be an understatement. While they’ve managed to have a bit of success at home, it’s been a completely different matter when they’ve had to visit the States. Their last four visits, including two World Cup qualifiers and two friendlies, have been bloodbaths. 

The smallest margin of victory in those four matches was three goals, as the United States outscored Panama by an 18-3 aggregate scoreline. Adding insult to injury was the fact that the showdown in March of last year saw the United States end the small nation’s hopes of reaching the World Cup. 

But I’m not sure the Americans are going to enjoy the same success they have in the past. For starters, this isn’t the typical United States team that Panama has had to face. Throwing out the friendlies — in which teams tend to experiment a bit more and take more chances — the two World Cup qualifiers saw the Yanks field a star-studded squad. 

For Panama, nine of the 11 starters from that World Cup qualifier last March were in the matchday squad against Qatar. They are organized on defense, having held Qatar to just one shot on goal. And while their scores from the group stage matches make it seem as though they barely squeaked through, a closer look will show that three of the four goals conceded against Costa Rica, Martinique, and El Salvador all came in the 90th minute or stoppage time. 

Panama are going to play much like Canada did at the weekend against a United States side that doesn’t have the usual weapons to break down a team defending in a low block. And much like Sunday’s match, I expect we will be seeing more action after halftime than before.

Of the 14 goals in Panama’s four matches in this tournament, 10 have come after halftime. And taking away the two United States wins against lowly opposition, the Yanks have seen five of the six goals in their matches scored in the second half or later. 

Getting plus-money odds for that to happen again on Wednesday is simply too good to pass up with how these teams match up. Panama aren't going to be pushovers, and they’re going to force the United States to break them down. Bet on that breakdown to come in the second 45, and wager that the second half will see the most goals in this match.

My best bet: Second half to have most goals (+110 at bet365)

USA vs Panama side analysis

The United States are the clear favorites on the 3-way line, with a price of -165 for them to win outright in regulation. The draw is priced as high as +310, while Panama are the third choice at +500.

The USMNT were outright favored to win against Canada as well but drew in regulation before winning on penalties. They avoided any suspensions and should have their full allotment of players. They’ve gone 10 unbeaten in all matches, and are expected to win again in front of their home fans.

Panama are unbeaten in their last four matches, winning three of them. They also avoided any yellow card suspensions from their win over Qatar and will hope Ismael Diaz can continue his hot play after scoring three goals in a nine-minute span over the Middle Eastern side. 

Panama have beaten the United States just three times in 25 encounters, with the Yanks winning 18 times. While I think they get the job done, the United States failed to impress against Canada and Panama is going to give them more of a fight going forward. I’m not going to lay the juice on the Americans, nor will I bet against them.

USA vs Panama Over/Under analysis

The Total of 2.5 goals is substantially skewed towards the Under, with the price ranging from -140 to -155. That would buck the historic trend between these sides, which has seen the last four matches on American soil eclipse that mark every time. That includes the last two encounters, each of which saw at least six goals scored. 

The United States ended their match with Canada in a 1-1 draw, ending a run of two straight Overs. The Under has come through in six of their last 10 matches, and without many of their big names their goal contributions could be light here again. They’ve also kept a clean sheet in four of their last six.

For Panama, they’ve managed just one clean sheet as the Over has gone 4-0 in their Gold Cup outings. There hasn’t been much of a trend for them, as the Over is 7-9 in their last 16 matches.

Again, this is one that I wouldn’t play simply due to the juice. Panama’s defensive breakdowns late are a big reason why I’m on the second half being higher-scoring, but I’m also not ruling out Panama finding a goal somewhere to help push the number into the Over. For the price, there’s simply not much value on either side.

USA vs Panama game info

USA vs Panama key injuries

USA: None.
Panama: None.

USA vs Panama weather

It will be a gorgeous day in San Diego on Wednesday, and temperatures at Snapdragon Stadium will be in the low 80s when the match kicks off in the late afternoon. There is no chance of rain in the forecast, and a light breeze shouldn’t hinder play. 

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