Real Madrid vs Benfica Predictions, Picks & Odds for Wednesday’s Champions League Match

Farley's prediction: Camavinga gets booked in chippy affair.

Sam Farley - Contributor at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Feb 23, 2026 • 09:55 ET • 4 min read
Eduardo Camavinga UCL Real Madrid
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Eduardo Camavinga of Real Madrid.

Wednesday’s Champions League clash between Real Madrid and Benfica will seal who gets the spot in the next round, but there’s more to the game than that.

The first leg was hugely controversial. The tension between both teams, as well as the importance of the game itself, is why our Real Madrid vs. Benfica predictions are expecting Eduardo Camavinga to get booked.

Read on for my free betting picks for February 25. 

Real Madrid vs Benfica picks and predictions

My Real Madrid vs Benfica best bet: Eduardo Camavinga to be shown a card (+250 at Sports Interaction)

The unsavory scenes involving Benfica’s Gianluca Prestianni and Real Madrid’s Vinicius Junior last week have ramped up the tension ahead of this game, and Real’s players will be determined to have retribution.

Eduardo Camavinga has always been a player with discipline issues, with 37 bookings in 209 Real Madrid games, even with many appearances coming from the bench.

The Frenchman also leads the team in fouls committed both in La Liga, with 2.06 fouls per 90 minutes played, and in the Champions League, where’s he’s been averaging 2.36 fouls per 90 minutes on the field.

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Real Madrid vs Benfica same-game parlay (SGP)

Eduardo Camavinga to be shown a card

Vinicius Junior 4+ shots

Kylian Mbappe anytime goal 

We’ve seen Vinicius Junior average 3.99 shots per 90 minutes played in the Champions League this season. After everything that happened in the first leg against Benfica, he’ll be even more determined to be the player who decides this game.

Kylian Mbappe is having an incredible season for his club, with 38 goals to his name in 33 games. He’s already scored 13 goals in eight Champions League games this season and has nine goals in nine games since the turn of the year.

Real Madrid vs Benfica odds

Real Madrid vs Benfica odds

Real Madrid Benfica
-204 Moneyline +475
+375 Draw +375
Over 2.5 (-213) Total Under 2.5 (+150)

Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.

How to watch Real Madrid vs Benfica

Location Estadio Santiago Bernabeau, Madrid, Spain
Date Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Time 3:00 p.m. ET
TV Paramount+
Weather 65F, calm and clear.

Real Madrid vs Benfica key injuries

Real Madrid: Jude Bellingham CAM (Out), Dean Huijsen CB (Out), Eder Militao CB (Out), Dani Ceballos CM (Out), Rodrygo FWR (Out).
Benfica: None.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Sam Farley
Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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