This match screams entertainment, as Champions League trophy holders PSG face a Chelsea team that's always ready to surprise.
The hosts are out for revenge following last year's 3-0 loss in the Club World Cup final, and my PSG vs. Chelsea predictions expect both sides to come out swinging in Leg 1 of this Round of 16 matchup.
Read all about it in my UCL betting picks for March 11.
PSG vs Chelsea picks and predictions
My PSG vs Chelsea best bet: Over 2.5 (-182 at Sports Interaction)
PSG drew both of their Champions League home matches this season, 2-2 vs. Monaco and 1-1 vs. Newcastle, but the latter could easily have produced far more goals given the number of chances that were wasted.
PSG have been making defensive mistakes and are coming off a 3-1 home defeat to Monaco in Ligue 1. Meanwhile, Chelsea have scored at least four goals in each of their last two matches, so I can't see this game being dull.
Nine of Chelsea's previous 11 games have gone Over 2.5 goals, while PSG have seen this happen in seven of their last eight.
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PSG vs Chelsea same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 2.5 goals
Ousmane Dembele 2+ shots on target
Desire Doue 2+ shots on target
Chelsea Over 3.5 shots on target
Ousmane Dembele had two shots on target in two of PSG's last three matches, and he'll be involved inside the Chelsea half.
Over the two legs with Monaco in the playoff, Desire Doue recorded four shots on target. He is ever-present in the French domestic league, too, troubling keepers at least once per game in four of PSG's last four games.
Chelsea had eight shots on target against Aston Villa in a high-profile Premier League match less than a week ago. Also, they recorded at least four per event in each of their last six Champions League encounters.
PSG vs Chelsea odds
 PSG |
 Chelsea |
|
|---|---|---|
| -118 | Moneyline | +280 |
| +290 | Draw | +290 |
| Over 2.5 (-175) | Total | Under 2.5 (+125) |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
PSG vs Chelsea opening odds
- Moneyline: PSG -118 | Chelsea +290
- Draw: +290
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-182) | Under 2.5 (+130)
How to watch PSG vs Chelsea
| Location | Parc des Princes, Paris, France |
| Date | Wednesday, March 11, 2026 |
| Time | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Fubo |
| Weather | POP 0%, Wind, 6 mph, Clear, 45 degrees F |
PSG vs Chelsea key injuries
PSG: Fabian Ruiz CM (Out), Joao Neves CM (Out), Quentin Ndjantou CM (Out).
Chelsea: Levi Colwill CB (Out), Estevao FW (Questionable), Jamie Gittens LW (Questionable), Mykhailo Mudryk LW (Out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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