After three weeks without Premier League football, there's plenty to unpack before Matchweek 6. Arsenal need to respond to a humbling defeat, Manchester City take their perfect record to Anfield, and several struggling clubs face early-season pressure.
My Premier League moneyline predictions and free betting picks for October 10-12 look beyond the obvious favorites, with Brentford, Nottingham Forest, and Ipswich among the sides I'm backing to spring surprises.
Premier League moneyline picks for Matchweek 6
| Match | Pick |
|---|---|
 Arsenalvs  Leeds United |
72% |
 Aston Villavs  Brentford |
37% |
 Chelseavs  Bournemouth |
58% |
 Ipswich Townvs  Fulham |
33% |
 Sunderlandvs  Brighton |
42% |
 Manchester Unitedvs  Tottenham |
58% |
 Crystal Palacevs  Nottingham Forest |
36% |
 Hull Cityvs  Everton |
Draw 29% |
 Liverpoolvs  Man City |
39% |
 Coventry Cityvs  Newcastle |
Draw 27% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Premier League moneyline picks for Matchweek 6
Arsenal vs Leeds United pick: Arsenal
Arsenal have had three weeks to digest their 3-0 defeat to Brighton, and Leeds could pay for that frustration. The Gunners have won nine of their last 10 Premier League meetings with Leeds, including seven straight by a combined 22-5 score.
Leeds are unbeaten through five matches, so this isn't a complete mismatch, and Arsenal's injury concerns complicate matters. Still, the defending champions have conceded just 4.79 expected goals, the kind of defensive foundation that should see them return to winning ways at the Emirates.
Aston Villa vs Brentford pick: Brentford
Brentford have already beaten Tottenham and Chelsea 3-0 this season, and their unbeaten start is supported by a healthy +2.64 expected-goal differential.
Villa, meanwhile, have produced a league-low 4.55 xG and have been vulnerable when forced to dominate possession. That's particularly concerning against a Brentford team that beat them twice last season by sitting deep and counterattacking.
The Bees don't need the ball to dictate this matchup. At 37%, I'm backing their tactical advantage to produce another road victory.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth pick: Chelsea
Chelsea's defensive numbers are alarming. Xabi Alonso's side have conceded a league-high 12 goals, and their 3-0 defeat at Brentford extended their winless league run to three matches.
Fortunately, Bournemouth arrive without a Premier League victory under Marco Rose. While the Cherries' underlying performances have been better than their results, the absence of Alex Scott also weakens their midfield options.
Chelsea have enough attacking quality to exploit that weakness, particularly at Stamford Bridge. I'm expecting a response from Alonso's side rather than another disappointing result.
Ipswich Town vs Fulham pick: Ipswich Town
Ipswich have already collected two Premier League victories since returning to the top flight, while Fulham remain winless through five matches under Alvaro Arbeloa.
There is legitimate concern about Ipswich's defending, with nearly eight expected goals conceded. But Fulham haven't been particularly convincing either, recording a negative xG differential themselves.
Portman Road gives the promoted side an opportunity to turn an evenly matched contest in its favor. With Kalshi making Fulham the favorite, I'll take my chances on Ipswich delivering a third win.
Sunderland vs Brighton pick: Brighton
Brighton entered the international break on a high after dismantling Arsenal 3-0, taking their league-leading scoring total to 16 goals in five matches.
There's some finishing regression to consider: Brighton have produced 10.58 xG, meaning they've significantly outperformed their chances. Sunderland have also created a respectable 9.21 xG, making this a dangerous road assignment.
However, the injuries to Daniel Ballard and Brian Brobbey leave Sunderland with important questions at both ends. I'm trusting Brighton's attacking quality to make the difference.
Manchester United vs Tottenham pick: Manchester United
Manchester United have just five points from five matches, but the underlying performances suggest Michael Carrick's team deserves better.
United rank second in the Premier League with 9.56 xG, while their +3.64 expected-goal differential is the league's best. Tottenham, meanwhile, have scored only two goals and remain without a victory under Roberto De Zerbi.
United's inconsistency makes 58% a relatively demanding price, but this is a favorable matchup for their attack. I'm backing the hosts to turn their statistical advantage into three points.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest pick: Nottingham Forest
Oliver Glasner returns to Selhurst Park with a Nottingham Forest team producing considerably better underlying numbers than Crystal Palace.
Forest own a +2.79 expected-goal differential, compared with Palace's -3.29, although their finishing has been frustrating. Forest have scored just four goals from 7.54 xG.
Palace have also lost both home league matches under Pierre Sage, which makes their slight favoritism difficult to justify. Glasner knows the opposition and the surroundings, and I'm backing Forest to turn superior chance creation into a road win.
Hull City vs Everton pick: Draw
Hull have made life difficult for opponents at the MKM Stadium, recording clean sheets in their first two home league matches.
Their possession numbers are ugly — a league-low 32.3% — but they're comfortable defending deep and waiting for opportunities. Everton haven't exactly overwhelmed opponents either, producing 6.51 xG through five matches.
I don't see a compelling reason to trust either attack to separate these sides. With both teams capable of making this a physical, low-event contest, the draw is my preferred outcome.
Liverpool vs Man City pick: Manchester City
Manchester City have won all five Premier League matches, while Liverpool remain unbeaten but have settled for three draws.
Andoni Iraola's aggressive pressing has Liverpool among the league's most intense teams, but that approach also creates opportunities for opponents capable of playing through pressure.
City have scored 13 goals from 8.66 xG, so some finishing regression is possible. Nevertheless, their ability to punish an aggressive press gives them a route to victory at Anfield. With the market essentially splitting the teams, I'll side with City's winning form.
Coventry City vs Newcastle pick: Draw
Newcastle are favored despite some troubling underlying numbers. They've generated only 4.86 expected goals while allowing 8.73, one of the Premier League's worst differentials.
Coventry haven't been much better, but their first victory of the season — a 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest — provides something to build on.
I don't trust either side enough to back a victory, so I'll close the slate with a draw.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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