The holiday period always brings out the best in the Premier League. With games on almost daily, we’re able to get non-stop action on the world’s best soccer league. On Tuesday, we see the current league leaders Manchester City welcome Leeds to town in a must-win game for both teams. Check out our Man City vs. Leeds tips and predictions to see how the game will go down.
Manchester City vs Leeds United match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Manchester City vs Leeds United betting tips
- Prediction: Manchester City ML (-700)
- Prediction: Under 2.5 goals (+220)
- Best bet: Over 2.5 cards for Leeds (+125)
Predictions made on 12/13/2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Manchester City vs Leeds United game info
• Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
• Date: Tuesday, December 14, 2021
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCSN, Peacock Premium, fubo TV, Hulu+ Live TV, Sling Blue
Manchester City vs Leeds United betting preview
Weather
Temperatures will be in the low 40s but we can expect very mild winds and no rain, all conditions which should allow both teams to play their natural games.
Injuries
Manchester City: Ferran Torres (Out), Joao Cancelo (Out), Ilkay Gundogan (Questionable).
Leeds United: Patrick Bamford (Out), Liam Cooper (Out), Kalvin Phillips (Out), Robin Koch (Out), Rodrigo (Questionable), Pascal Struijk (Questionable).
Manchester City vs Leeds United predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Side analysis
Manchester City vs. Leeds is the game to watch on Tuesday's three-match slate. We’ll see two of the most influential coaches of the past 20-30 years go head-to-head under the floodlights at the City of Manchester Stadium.
Fifteen spots separate the two teams with Man City a point ahead of Liverpool and two ahead of Chelsea on top of the Premier League. Down in 15th - and five points clear of the relegation spots - are Leeds United. This hasn’t been a great season for Leeds and Marcelo Bielsa is struggling to find the magic that’s been the calling card of this Leeds team since his arrival in Yorkshire.
When they returned to the Premier League after a long absence, Leeds were a breath of fresh air. Their swashbuckling style was entertaining and they were instantly a favorite of neutrals. This season hasn't been quite the same, winning just three of 16 games, drawing seven, and losing six. This isn’t the Leeds of old and although they have had some injury issues, missing Patrick Bamford for a longer period of the season, it’s also worth asking if they’ve been found out. There’s certainly a strong argument that you know exactly what Leeds are going to do every single game and we’ve yet to see a compelling argument that Bielsa has a “Plan B” when it isn’t working.
Man City also has a firmly entrenched identity and way of playing. They’ve struggled in recent years to have a backup plan, and Pep Guardiola has a habit of overthinking as he did in last year’s Champions League final. The main difference is that Man City, with all their wealth and riches, have such a brilliant team that they’re hard to beat, even when you know exactly what’s coming.
This latest iteration of Man City might not be as free-scoring as they’ve been in the past but they’ve got the tightest defense in the league and are arguably the finest team Guardiola has built. With league wins against a brilliant Liverpool and hard-to-beat Chelsea, it’s possible they’re the greatest Premier League side ever.
That brings us to Tuesday’s game and the question of how you can beat Man City. It’s no easy task and bringing the battle to City could be Bielsa’s best form of defense. The problem with Leeds is they’re not great against teams who can counter. That isn’t a strength of the City team but with an abundance of quick and skillful players, it’s something they’re able to do when the opportunities arise.
I feel dreadful picking something at -700 odds - and it’s not something I like to bet on personally - but there’s very little chance that Man City don’t get all three points from this game. Those -700 odds imply an 87.5% chance that City win, I’d argue it should be at least 90% if not higher, so regrettably, that’s the play to make.
Prediction: Manchester City ML (-700)
Over/Under analysis
If picking Man City to win at -700 doesn't feel right, then deciding which way the total goals line will fall feels sickening. The odds of Over 2.5 goals are mind-blowingly short at -275, and despite everything about Man City vs. Leeds telling you to back the Over, you simply can’t back it at that price.
Despite their incredible attacking talent, Man City have only scored Over 2.5 goals in 50% of their home games this season. Failing to do so against the likes of Southampton, Burnley, Crystal Palace, and Wolves. Those aren’t great teams and you’d have to hope that it’s a bad day at the office for Man City.
The Over has also landed in just 50% of Leeds away games. This game will probably end up with Over 2.5 goals, but the stats don’t fully back that up and the odds are so short that it’s really not worth it. Grab the better odds and take Under 2.5 goals at +220.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals (+220)
Best bet
Paul Tierney will be officiating Tuesday’s game and he’s dished out 43 cards through 11 Premier League matches this year for an average of 3.91 cards per game.
A by-product of their immense quality is Man City don’t get many bookings. In 16 Premier League games, they have just 24 yellows and one red. It’s the opposition that usually struggles against them.
Leeds, meanwhile, have nearly double that yellow card total with 46 and one red card. In the past two games, both teams playing Man City have given up at least three bookings apiece. Given that Leeds will find themselves out of position against City, and could make rash tackles in front of a card-happy referee, it seems like great odds getting Over 2.5 Leeds Cards at +125.
Pick: Leeds cards Over 2.5 (+125)
