Labouchere System Thoughts?

That is a nice twist and certainly would keep your bet size in check.

 

One thing I've recommended to our members is that if a line ever gets uncomfortable for you...get out a piece of paper and write down.....60-50-40-30 and put it in your wallet as those are losses that you want to clear but don't want to put that much of you bankroll out right now.  Then once you get a nice winning streak and build your bankroll you can always  go back and one by one

pick off those numbers.

 

The other thing I would advise is that if you're playing chases....when you go back and try to pick off some bigger numbers I usually recommend doing it on a GAME 2 with a HOME TEAM.  This year that has the highest winning %.

 

Just some thoughts....but you are definately on the right track with keeping a managable bet size.

Yes, very good point.  I think picking your spot to attack bigger numbers in your line is important.  So if you have a system where one situation has a higher winning % that would be the spot.

 

I've also read on some of the other threads the concern of clearing lines yet not showing a profit due to the odds.  After some thought yesterday this what I came up with.  I am aware that it's been metioned that some times you will make more than the line due to the odds of dogs.  So it should even out in the long run.  But this is my idea.  And it is with the thought to the up comming football season and the stardard -110 odds I would try this on. 

 

So keeping with a $1000 bankroll and $50 total line starting units.

 

10-10-10-10-10

 

So my first bet should be 20.  But since im giving 1.1 odds why not just apply that to my line and bet 22 to win 20.  So instead of betting what you are risking with your outside numbers, you are betting to win the total of your outside numbers.  Now I can see where in baseball this might be much different with bigger odds.  But in football where everything is right around -110 you're not really increasing your bet all that much.  Now lets look at my line with this in mind.  Lets say again that I start with a losing streak all bets are based on -110.

 

10-10-10-10-10 = 1st bet is 22 to win 20 =  Loss

10-10-10-10-10-22 = 2nd bet is 35.20 to win 32 = Loss

10-10-10-10-10-22-35.20 = 3rd bet is 49.72 to win 45.20 = Loss

 

Now since my next bet would be 65.70 to win 59.72 I would break up the line because that is over my $50 / 5% limit.  Once you clear this line you would have made you $50 instead of giving up the juice all along the way.  My thinking is the more I break up lines, or the more bets in takes to clear one line the more the juice eats into my profit.  If you keep all your single bets to a certain limit and the odds are all around -110 then you are never increasing your bet by all that much.  It will always be propotional to what your current 5% of your bankroll is.

 

Thoughts on this?

I don't know any chase systems for football.  I was thinking of using it just on games that I would handicap throughout the season.  And yes I was thinking about this in terms of spreads and O/U's.

 

I agree with you on the profitable factor, so for this to work I think you have to have a longer time horizon.  Say multible football seasons or multible sports seasons.  Like rolling your lines into the NBA.  I had only just heard about the management method from the other threads, and since I don't play baseball I have yet to be able to try it.  But I think it could help me keep my bets in check this football season.  Now maybe I don't make a large profit right away, but if I can show a small profit and move my lines up come the end, its just a little by little progression that keeps my bankroll in tact.

You could chase for an over/under

EINSTEIN AND OTHERS HAVE PROVED THAT ANY  SYSTEM  USED SUCH AS YOURS WHICH IS AVARIATION OF A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM ONLY DECREASES YOUR ODDS OF WINNING. THERE IS ONLY 1 THING THAT MAKES YOU MONEY AND THAT IS BEING A GOOD HANDICAPPER AND GOOD MONEY MANAGEMENT!!!!!!!!!!!

   4% OF YOUR INCOME SHOULD BE THE MOST YOU SHOULD INVEST. YOU CAN WITHIN A LOSING STREAK. IF YOU LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY I RECOMMEND PLAYING PARCHESI FOR ENTERTAINMENT.

Hi Bob, good to "see" you. Jarhead's right that money management alone can't win anyone money. It still comes down to personal win rate. Having said that, these betting progressions can work and perform better than flat-betting but ONLY if you pick enough winners in the first place, otherwise forget it. A losing streak is your enemy. Higher win rate = smaller losing streaks. 55+% of point spreads and 60+% of money lines (for mostly favs) is a good goal but not going to come easily. As far as progressions, you need a safe one that will allow you the most time to hit those %s. Martingale is the worst and probably should never be used. Labourchere is better but not the best IMO. Years ago I created a modified (safer) D'Alembert before I knew there was a name for it. You would have to use a small % of BR per play, establish a high win rate (the hard part), and practice strong discipline (not easy either). Kelly is probably the best but, like Jarhead said, it's tricky because you have to calculate your expected win rate which most probably aren't going to do realistically. Ideally, you want a positive progression where the bets are increased after a win.

You can't focus on the day to day or each bet, you should look at how much you're up each week or month b/c over the long term you'll be farther ahead if you are able to make the right plays. It takes a sh*tload of discipline I agree. However, if you're willing to input these MM strategies into a solid betting system, you'll be good to go.   

What if you have multiple game in one day? Do you start a new line or do you keep the amount equal to all games?

Ex. if you have 10-10-10-10-10

game 1  20

game 2  20

game 3  20

Then cross out the outside numbers if win or add on if its a net loss.