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Solid Wimbledon Men's Pick 2010

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Posted: #1

Guys,

I don't post on the tennis forum much but my 3 picks so far have all won. I have spotted a really solid play for Wimbledon.

Rafael Nadal to win the mens single title @+250. I have locked it in as I believe this price will go down (hence the early writeup. Here are a list of reasons why..

1) The guy was serving at 80% the last 2 matches of the French open. That truly is an unbelievable stat. If he continues to serve 80% of first serves in he is going to be very difficult to beat.

2) While I feel it may take some time before he wins a US open, Nadal has won a Wimbledon and played in 3 finals. We know he can play on grass.

3) Is there a tougher more mentally strong player in the world right now? It seems clear his injury problems are behind him right now. He hasn't lost a set in quite some time so his confidence is back to what it was. Before those dodgy knees started to plague him the momentum and world's best player was firmly going in Nadal's direction. He is back on top again.

4) His head to head record with Federer is awesome. He nows he can beat Federer on grass. He missed Wimbledon last year and never got to defend his title you know he will be hungry. Rafa has a mental edge here and both Federer and Nadal know it.

5) Federer is not the dominant player he was. He is finally starting to look human and his odds I believe are what he has done in the past, not what's currently happening. He is trading a bit above evens. Considering his form since the Australian Open I think That's a horrible price. Remember he has won 16 Grand Slams, he is starting to get old in Tennis terms and is a father of twin girls. No way I take him at this price. Maybe the US Open not here.

Ok there are concerns on my pick. After all its +250 for a reason. Firstly we can't be sure Rafa is not in pain tonight (will be interesting if he plays Queen's club). Secondly there are guys who have games that match up well against Rafa on grass (Roddick, Murray, Cilic, Berdych, Soderling etc). I would fancy Rafa big time if he got to the final against anybody. The big problem will be getting there. It's been a long clay court season but he skipped a few events and dropped very few sets so I can only assume physically 2 weeks at Wimbledon will be ok to him.

Outside of the top 2, I really can't see a winner. Soderling/Berdych/Novak have never done it on grass and I have seen no evidence they are about to start. Murray is too negative a player to ever win on grass. Roddick has too many demons. I wouldn't like to bet on any of those players. Murray +500 is a disgusting price. I would rather take a chance on a guy that will make a final in the future (at some stage) and thats Marin Cilic @+2500. The guy has an awesome game for grass and sooner or later he is going to put a Grand Slam performance together. The draw of course is crucial but he is a player no one will relish playing.

The ladies I don't really have a big feeling. Hard to look past the Williams sisters BUT no value to be had there. I am going to take a punt on Maria Sharapova. She has a big game for grass and there are signs she is coming back to form. She loves playing at Wimbledon and I think +700 is not a bad price, especially if she ends up on the opposite side of the draw to the Williams sisters.

Good luck with your plays 

 

 
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Posted: #2
I like the Cilic mention. He is going to win a slam at some point imo and his game should do well on grass. From here on out I would be playing Soderling and Cilic at every grand slam just based on the fact that they give you awesome value.
 
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Posted: #3

i dont think there is any value at +250 on nadal @wimbledon, i think the books rightfully put it low because of the French so that line is a bit inflated looking better than it really is.  

I like Cilic odds and even Murrays odds a bit but Nadal on grass vs all these up and comers, i dont see any value at +250.

 
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Posted: #4
+250 is a cracking price. He should be closer to evens. mark my words
 
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Posted: #5
Don't put too much into that 80% number, he has been taking a little bit off his first serves to get them in because he knows as long as he doesn't give his opponent a second serve to attack on clay he can control the rallies.  He'll have a little more trouble doing that on grass
 
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Posted: #6
fairweather I am just going on the hunch Nadal is the best player in the world right now. he has bucket loads of confidence and has won at Wimbledon..I think the kid is special when he is flowing like this. I maintain +250 when he is in this mood and when the former number 1 is starting to show decline should be mopped up. Indeed I have a feeling Federer doesnt make the final this year
 
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Posted: #7

Of course this could be a Malivi washington v Krajeck (forgive both spellin) where 2 unfancied players get to the final! I hope one of them is Cilic! Still though I just have a huge hunch on Nadal so playing on that

 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:

fairweather I am just going on the hunch Nadal is the best player in the world right now. he has bucket loads of confidence and has won at Wimbledon..I think the kid is special when he is flowing like this. I maintain +250 when he is in this mood and when the former number 1 is starting to show decline should be mopped up. Indeed I have a feeling Federer doesnt make the final this year


I agree that he is a special kind of player when he starts to gain momentum. I think there is no player like him in the mens game that is so mentally strong to go along with his skills. He has one this slam before and the surface is better for him then the US open or AO. I think some people are getting too caught up in his results of last season when he came back from injury. Sure he lost to Delpo bad, but Del Potro then won the title. Sure he lost to Murray this year at the AO but Murray was playing fantastic tennis but just doesnt have the head to beat Feds in a big final.

None of the second tier players are playing that great maybe outside of Soderling. Nadal looked strong this past week and he took minimal damage to his body and he was never really in any trouble so it wasnt very taxing mentally. When Nadal is healthy he is just so hard to beat in the best of 5 (save the US open). I think theres a strong chance he makes the final.
 
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Posted: #9

im not doubting Nadals talent, he is the number 1 ranked in the world right now... but +250 Nadal on grass isnt good value..

Sorry but its true, not saying he wont win but it should be more like +400 IMO which it was i think before the french started and we all pretty much knew he was a near lock to win the french.

 
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Posted: #10

Moneyshot one of the best Tennis journalists in Europe just posted this (see below). I FULLY agree..+250 was ENORMOUS Value! +400 maybe for the US Open. Nadal has won the last time he played Wimbledon (reached 3 finals in a row that he played there), he is on a sick winning streak..I'm not saying he will win for sure but that is amazing value when you add up all the equations....The +250 has already been snapped up and now into +200 (hence my early writeup). This price is only going one way and after the weekend it will be below +200. Dude I respect you but you are wrong here..I got him at +275 (lovin that!). Books priced this one up wrong.

 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

im not doubting Nadals talent, he is the number 1 ranked in the world right now... but +250 Nadal on grass isnt good value..

Sorry but its true, not saying he wont win but it should be more like +400 IMO which it was i think before the french started and we all pretty much knew he was a near lock to win the french.

Agreed. 150 points knocked off the value simply because he does what he was heavily favored to do anyway and win the French. The odds here are bad, just like with Fed. I think you would do much better betting the matches one at a time.

I think Murray or Roddick might present value. Both have great grass court serving that should get them far and then of course hedging becomes a viable option. Murray to me is the type of guy who will win a slam right after people have written him off, as many have now. This could be a good spot for him. Buy low, sell high, right?

Also agree with FWF that the first serve % is very deceptive and will not be as high on grass.
 
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Posted: #13

Quote Originally Posted by BurningPlanet26:

Agreed. 150 points knocked off the value simply because he does what he was heavily favored to do anyway and win the French. The odds here are bad, just like with Fed. I think you would do much better betting the matches one at a time.

I think Murray or Roddick might present value. Both have great grass court serving that should get them far and then of course hedging becomes a viable option. Murray to me is the type of guy who will win a slam right after people have written him off, as many have now. This could be a good spot for him. Buy low, sell high, right?

Also agree with FWF that the first serve % is very deceptive and will not be as high on grass.

Sorry but absolute rubbish. Andy Murray will NEVER win Wimbledon. He is a solid player but does not have the game to win at Wimbledon (time will prove me right). On grass you need to really go for your shot's and Murray's game is to use his head and outsmart his opponent, keep the ball in play and in general wait for his opponent make a mistake. Add to the fact the pressure the Brits out him under, I wouldn't take Andy Murray if he was +6000!. He is not winning. Plain and simple. Andy Roddick has had a lot of chances and you wonder if he ever will win Wimbledon. I think his chance has come and gone and you wonder mentally just what last year's final took out of him.

Berdych, Cilic and Soderling have the games to do well on grass but thus far they have yet to break their grand slam ducks. Del Potro of course is out. Soderling and Berdych have never done it on grass and afer both going deep in the French I wonder if this is the year they start to do well on grass. I say no.

That realistically leaves Federer and Nadal the only 2 that will probably win this title. One guy has just become world number 1, won a truck load of games in a row and has reached 3 Wimbledon finals in a row (that he played) and won the last one he contended. The other is a player who has not been in form since Australia and incredibly is the same price he was last year (I took that price -> https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=38&sub=100476011) Federer is too good to write off but there is a reason why Nadal's odds have shortended to +200 and Federer's drifted.

I guess time will tell who is right but +250 was a very generous price..

 
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Posted: #14

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:

Sorry but absolute rubbish. Andy Murray will NEVER win Wimbledon. He is a solid player but does not have the game to win at Wimbledon (time will prove me right). On grass you need to really go for your shot's and Murray's game is to use his head and outsmart his opponent, keep the ball in play and in general wait for his opponent make a mistake. Add to the fact the pressure the Brits out him under, I wouldn't take Andy Murray if he was +6000!. He is not winning. Plain and simple. Andy Roddick has had a lot of chances and you wonder if he ever will win Wimbledon. I think his chance has come and gone and you wonder mentally just what last year's final took out of him.

Berdych, Cilic and Soderling have the games to do well on grass but thus far they have yet to break their grand slam ducks. Del Potro of course is out. Soderling and Berdych have never done it on grass and afer both going deep in the French I wonder if this is the year they start to do well on grass. I say no.

That realistically leaves Federer and Nadal the only 2 that will probably win this title. One guy has just become world number 1, won a truck load of games in a row and has reached 3 Wimbledon finals in a row (that he played) and won the last one he contended. The other is a player who has not been in form since Australia and incredibly is the same price he was last year (I took that price -> https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=38?=100476011) Federer is too good to write off but there is a reason why Nadal's odds have shortended to +200 and Federer's drifted.

I guess time will tell who is right but +250 was a very generous price..



You are nuts then. He made the semis last year and barely lost to Roddick. And if he had won there and had to face someone other than Fed in the finals, who knows. He has the potential to play much more aggressively than he does on average. example: vs Nadal at AO QFs and US SFs. If he played how he does vs Nadal vs everyone on tour he would be a true monster. at 21/22 I think he has time to realize this.

+6000 and if he makes the semis again you could hedge your ass off for megaprofit, which was the point of my post, that if he gets far enough at the big futures odds (thought obviously not as big as you need lmao)  you could hedge for guaranteed profit. do you dispute that? Because it would be pretty easy to crunch the numbers and prove you wrong. if he gets to the semis again he will get a lot of respect from the books same as last year when in the semis he was -220 to beat Roddick and make it to the final.
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as for Nadal, I think today showed some weaknesses vs serve and volley types, even though one could argue it was a tankjob. I also think he will have some issues if he gets a bad draw featuring tons of power players early, because the courts play a lot faster in Wimbledon the first week.

Fed looks about ten times better on the grass right now and if I had to choose between their futures I would eat the extra 100 points and back Fed, not Rafa. With how their styles work on grass I feel like Fed would have to choke some vs Rafa to lose in a potential final here, which obviously is very possible. He is playing this week like he wants to make a statement ala Nadal on clay.Too bad grass court season is not longer so we could gage form better.

good luck though. I have no plays on the men's futures side so could honestly give a shit. I just don't think you got much of a deal at +250. I think Venus on the WTA side has the same chance to win the title and her odds are much more appealing. That and Sharapova are the only futures I find valuable.
 
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Posted: #16

Quote Originally Posted by BurningPlanet26:



You are nuts then. He made the semis last year and barely lost to Roddick. And if he had won there and had to face someone other than Fed in the finals, who knows. He has the potential to play much more aggressively than he does on average. example: vs Nadal at AO QFs and US SFs. If he played how he does vs Nadal vs everyone on tour he would be a true monster. at 21/22 I think he has time to realize this.

+6000 and if he makes the semis again you could hedge your ass off for megaprofit, which was the point of my post, that if he gets far enough at the big futures odds (thought obviously not as big as you need lmao)  you could hedge for guaranteed profit. do you dispute that? Because it would be pretty easy to crunch the numbers and prove you wrong. if he gets to the semis again he will get a lot of respect from the books same as last year when in the semis he was -220 to beat Roddick and make it to the final.
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as for Nadal, I think today showed some weaknesses vs serve and volley types, even though one could argue it was a tankjob. I also think he will have some issues if he gets a bad draw featuring tons of power players early, because the courts play a lot faster in Wimbledon the first week.

Fed looks about ten times better on the grass right now and if I had to choose between their futures I would eat the extra 100 points and back Fed, not Rafa. With how their styles work on grass I feel like Fed would have to choke some vs Rafa to lose in a potential final here, which obviously is very possible. He is playing this week like he wants to make a statement ala Nadal on clay.Too bad grass court season is not longer so we could gage form better.

good luck though. I have no plays on the men's futures side so could honestly give a shit. I just don't think you got much of a deal at +250. I think Venus on the WTA side has the same chance to win the title and her odds are much more appealing. That and Sharapova are the only futures I find valuable.

We will see who is nuts tomorrow. You really don't get the dynamics of Grand slam tennis do you Planet?

Guys the sadly +250 and +400 are long gone. Those prices may be the best prices I have ever gotten for anything and I have unloaded on both. Only injury stops the champ now..Rafa

 
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Posted: #17
Only injury? Is he even going to be favored against Murray? That match will probably be -110/-110. Then if he gets through that he won't be much of a favorite against Berdych/Djokovic.
 
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by Mike C.:

Only injury? Is he even going to be favored against Murray? That match will probably be -110/-110. Then if he gets through that he won't be much of a favorite against Berdych/Djokovic.

Are u Nuts!??Rafa is trading near odds on for the tournament and  -160 for the Murray match. I have made my money backing against over rated individual British sport stars. Andy Murray's game is perfect for Nadal on grass..Murray will be competitive but -160 is a GIFT!

Murray will win a grand slam one day but NEVER at Wimbledon

 
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Posted: #19
Only Rafa's injury would stop be unloading half my roll on this. I won't bet as my futures bet is in place at way better odds but if Rafa is not injured he doesn't lose tomorrow..The injury means you have to be sensible..
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:

Guys,

I don't post on the tennis forum much but my 3 picks so far have all won. I have spotted a really solid play for Wimbledon.

Rafael Nadal to win the mens single title @+250. I have locked it in as I believe this price will go down (hence the early writeup. Here are a list of reasons why..

1) The guy was serving at 80% the last 2 matches of the French open. That truly is an unbelievable stat. If he continues to serve 80% of first serves in he is going to be very difficult to beat.

2) While I feel it may take some time before he wins a US open, Nadal has won a Wimbledon and played in 3 finals. We know he can play on grass.

3) Is there a tougher more mentally strong player in the world right now? It seems clear his injury problems are behind him right now. He hasn't lost a set in quite some time so his confidence is back to what it was. Before those dodgy knees started to plague him the momentum and world's best player was firmly going in Nadal's direction. He is back on top again.

4) His head to head record with Federer is awesome. He nows he can beat Federer on grass. He missed Wimbledon last year and never got to defend his title you know he will be hungry. Rafa has a mental edge here and both Federer and Nadal know it.

5) Federer is not the dominant player he was. He is finally starting to look human and his odds I believe are what he has done in the past, not what's currently happening. He is trading a bit above evens. Considering his form since the Australian Open I think That's a horrible price. Remember he has won 16 Grand Slams, he is starting to get old in Tennis terms and is a father of twin girls. No way I take him at this price. Maybe the US Open not here.

Ok there are concerns on my pick. After all its +250 for a reason. Firstly we can't be sure Rafa is not in pain tonight (will be interesting if he plays Queen's club). Secondly there are guys who have games that match up well against Rafa on grass (Roddick, Murray, Cilic, Berdych, Soderling etc). I would fancy Rafa big time if he got to the final against anybody. The big problem will be getting there. It's been a long clay court season but he skipped a few events and dropped very few sets so I can only assume physically 2 weeks at Wimbledon will be ok to him.

Outside of the top 2, I really can't see a winner. Soderling/Berdych/Novak have never done it on grass and I have seen no evidence they are about to start. Murray is too negative a player to ever win on grass. Roddick has too many demons. I wouldn't like to bet on any of those players. Murray +500 is a disgusting price. I would rather take a chance on a guy that will make a final in the future (at some stage) and thats Marin Cilic @+2500. The guy has an awesome game for grass and sooner or later he is going to put a Grand Slam performance together. The draw of course is crucial but he is a player no one will relish playing.

The ladies I don't really have a big feeling. Hard to look past the Williams sisters BUT no value to be had there. I am going to take a punt on Maria Sharapova. She has a big game for grass and there are signs she is coming back to form. She loves playing at Wimbledon and I think +700 is not a bad price, especially if she ends up on the opposite side of the draw to the Williams sisters.

Good luck with your plays 

 

How about this for insight jackass! Want me to post my last years insightful plays!??

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Mike C.:

Only injury? Is he even going to be favored against Murray? That match will probably be -110/-110. Then if he gets through that he won't be much of a favorite against Berdych/Djokovic.

He was -170 today
and he is close to -300 for the final against Berdych
why did you think he wouldn't be much of a favorite?

 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by ghostkid:


He was -170 today
and he is close to -300 for the final against Berdych
why did you think he wouldn't be much of a favorite?


I'm not the only one that thought Murray/Nadal was an even match. I was wrong and it won't be the last time. I'm human Congrats mack and all other Nadal supporters
 
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Posted: #23
looks good now.
 
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Posted: #24

Quote Originally Posted by BurningPlanet26:

looks good now.

We have fought back and forth but you writeups are first class

 
 
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Posted: #25
Good job sticking to your guns.

I think EVERYONE will be taking Nadal in the final match
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