I do believe it is possible he is wagering the 25K. I for one plan on becoming damn rich as a film director and yet would probably still continue to post after I make it. I think it is good to discuss picks with other gamblers and try to become a better capper no matter how rich or poor you are. But I can see how saying 25K specifically seems like bragging.
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On the real issue...
To me it is pretty wild that you made Fed your play of the year at Wimbledon and are now wagering so severely against him in a Slam he has won, what, the last five years in a row or so? And right after this last tournament where he dismantled his top HC competition in Djokavic and Murray?
You still have not listed the odds you are getting here. I agree with the first reply that they would have to be no less than -170. To me it is not worth risking a huge sum of money to get half of it back if the Greatest Player Ever fails.
How far do you think he will go? Do you honestly see him falling before the semifinals? I think that is mission impossible. He will face a bunch of lame-os and be given a favorable draw, play a quarterfinalist who will be good but most likely not great and then only truly start to see a large challenge from the semis on.
Let's say he makes the semifinals, even the quarters. At this point what do you think the line would be betting against him to win the tournament? I would say at this point your -170 is going to turn to +120 or possibly much better and thus risking your 25K then would yeild a profit of possibly 30K instead of 13K or so. An increase of a whopping 17K simply for having the patience to wait for Federer to beat a bunch of perrenial losers and get within striking distance, which I think even you know is going to happen. For that reason alone I think this is a bad bet even if it hits, because if he makes the quarters and still loses this tournament somehow you will have missed a chance at greatly increasing the value of your wager.
I think it would have been better to wait until the first round you could see Fed going out and betting against him then doubling the amount until he is gone, since you will be getting big dog odds every time.
Also, who really has the game to take him out?
Nadal? He has yet to make a US Open final, has struggled vs top ten players since returning and will probably still show some signs of rust. Despite all of this I think he is one of the two players that will have the best shot of helping you due to his heart and mental strength. I also think he was not going all out these last two tournaments the way he will at the USO. Still, not likely.
Murray? I agree that his defensive style will crumble in front of an attacking Fed. He basically has to hope Federer has a bad day to win, and when is the last time that has happened at the US Open? Also, if you watched their last match you would see that Federer has very obviousl;y been studying Murray and made changes which resulted in a convincing win, even when Murray "turned it on" in the second set.
Djokavic? I love the guy but he does not have the mental resilience to beat Federer at the top of his game, which he most certainly is now.
Roddick? Same reasoning as above. Wimbledon was his best shot and he blew it bigtime. And if Roddick has to go through someone like Murray or Del Potro to get to Fed I do not like his chances.
Tsonga, Soderling, Verdasco? No way. Haas? Too many errors lately.
Del Potro? I actually think this is your best shot. He has a Slam coming and even a blind man can see that. But right now you have to question his five set fitness level and belief. I think his FO result vs Fed is about what would happen were they to face off here. If he gets up he will question himself and it is all over.
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