PLAY: OKLAHOMA @ OKLAHOMA STATE & WRITE UP

OKLAHOMA @ OSU

KEY PTS:  (USING USA TODAY STATS)  The Squares look  at this game in the most basic way; general rankings and stats.  OSU  3^rd vs  OU 4^th ranked offense’s in YPG/the  52^nd ranked defense of OU vs the OSU 107^th ranked defense.   THAT is what most Squares are looking at, and maybe throw in passing offense and such, but it basically stops there—that is what sets and moves your current OSU -3.5 line.  Most people betting—moving this line--this game on Championship weekend have not even seen more than 2 full games played by either team.  Therein lays the opportunity in this game.

OU/OSU defensive comparison:  This seems to be the biggest disparity doesn’t it?  OSU has given up 4,990 yds (total), while OU has only given up 4,103—about 80.64 more yards that OSU has given up per game; that is worth a full scoring drive… on the surface anyway.  I think this separation of defensive talent is ‘smoke and mirrors’ and that the OSU defensive squad is more a victim of their offense’s prowess than their own lack of ability.  The more a defense is on the field throughout a season; the more yards that will be given up, and the more points the opposing offensive’s will score.  OU’s offense tends to win—or at least split—time of possession in their games, while OSU’s quick strike offense does not.  Hence, OSU’s defense has been on the field a lot more than their offense, and substantially more the OU’s defense has.  Facts:  OU is ranked 48^th in the nation in T.O.P. @ 50.27, and OSU is ranked 114^th possessing the pigskin only 44.66% of the time.  In my opinion, that explains a lot of the extra 887 yards OSU’s squad has given up. 

Pass D:  OSU’s opposing QB’s ave passer ratings are 112.1, OU’s are 118.4.  OSU opponents ypp 6.4, last 3 gms 5.4, OU’s is  6.9 for the season and 7.8 for their last 3 gms.   Yards per completion:  OSU is ranked 29^th in the country @ 11 ypc to OU’s 12.9 for the season, and up in their last 3 gms to 14.8 in comparison to OSU’s last 3 of 9.9 ypc.  OSU is #2 in the nation in INT’s with 21 compared to OU’s 13—we have to consider that OSU was passed on 67 more times than OU, but 7 more INT’s?  heavy advantage OSU

This season OSU has given up an average of 4.42 yds per rush attempt, while OU has given up only 3.44.  advantage OU

OSU picked off 21 of 460 (4.57%)  passing attempts, and going against Landry Jones who has a TD/INT ratio of 28/12, while OU’s D has picked off 13 of the 393 (3.31%) attempts it faced going against 28 year old Brandon Weedon’s TD/INT ratio of 34/12

Defensive summary: In yards against; it appears that OU’s defense is ranked  52^nd to OSU’s 107^th, and in NO WAY is their defense that dominant in comparison, but once again that is what the Squares look at, that is what dictates the line movements, and that is where our monetary advantage is.  OU’s run D is better than OSU’s, but with OU’s Dominique Whaley out for the season OU’s run game has 560 yds in their last 3 games.  Interesting note:  Landry Jones was 16-6 (TD/INT) when he had Dominique Whaley in the backfield, and has gone 12-6 (TD/INT) in the following games that Whaley has not started (broken ankle).  In addition,   not counting the 253 yards that OU rushed for vs Iowa States 98^th ranked rush defense—OU has rushed for only 501 yards in 4 games (since losing Whaley)— 125 per game.   

OSU’s basic D rankings/stats will look inferior to OU’s to the average Square capping this game, but a deeper look actually seems to favor OSU.

·        

T.O.P.:

OU makes only 40.4 % of 3^rd down conversions, OSU makes 48.4%......  OSU is ranked 114^th in the country in T.O.P.  Possessing the ball only 44.66% of the time, while OU is ranked 48^th having the ball 50.27% of the time.  What does that really mean?  OU has played against more battle worn defenses (mattering most in the 3^rd and 4^th quarters) than OSU has.  Last 3 games OU has possessed the ball 55.78% (about 100 or 180 minutes), while OSU has only possessed the ball 42.64% of the last 3 (just under 77 of the last 180 minutes of game)

Bedlam series history:  Oklahoma leads the overall series 82-16-7.  Oklahoma 7-2-1 of the last 10 played in Stillwater.  The last win for OSU in the Bedlam series was in 2002 when Les Miles was at the helm.   Last year the Cowboys were both ranked higher, and favored in Stillwater and still lost 47-41—though not many of us could contest that they played a hard fought game.  Advantage OU

weather  forecast: is a rainy  43 degrees with a 12 mph wind (lessening from the 16-18 mph earlier in the day)  this plays into the favor of OU due to the superior passing game of the Cowboys, but slightly offset by Landry Jones being  the less talented passer.  Slight advantage Sooners.

Injuries:   

 OU:   In the last 2 games without Ryan Broyles—OU’s most productive WR—Landry has just 703 yards passing (average of 351.5 per game) as opposed to the 380 yrds passing OU averaged before Broyles tore his ACL.  Dominique Whaley is an even bigger loss for this OU squad in my opinion; now the pressure is on Jones to run a pass heavy offense.  Frank Alexander (DE) is probable, Jaz Reynolds served his one gm suspension and is expected to play.

OSU:  OSU has not ‘NEW’ major injuries.  WR Michael Harrison is listed as ‘questionable’ for this match up (been out since week 10).

Advantage OSU

Motivation:  OU has dominated this series, and would like to continue that winning tradition.  OU would like validation by grabbing a marque win against the nations 3^rd ranked team.   OU’s motivation pales in comparison.  Alabama seems on track for a birth into the National Championship game—as unfair as the Cowboys probably feel that is.  Once the Cowboys beat OU, they will have a strong argument that they deserve a shot at LSU more so than the Tide…. But that is another argument.  Fact is that OSU wants to win this game decisively to have ANY shot at a National title shot—OU is not even in the running.  A close win by OSU will seal their fate, but a decisive win could spark more hope.  Advantage OSU

Summary:

This game is pretty simple when you dive into it.   OSU wants this game more, and they are the better team, playing at home in front of a fan base witnessing the best team this program ever fielded.  Just looking at the overall rankings, defensive rankings, and offensive rankings give a thwarted impression.  OU has 2 key injuries on offense that has started to expose an over rated QB who is starting to sputter due to an imbalanced attack.  OSU is much more formidable than what they look on paper due to their offense’s prowess and quick strike tendency.  OSU has more motivation in this game than OU, and is primed to show the world that they deserve a national title shot.  No need to break down the offenses; a blind man can see that OSU is by far the more prolific threat, and compiling the key losses of OU over the past few weeks…the margin just spread wider.

The weather in Stillwater will serve OU and could prove challenging to OSU’s point a minute offense, but Landry Jones will be even more susceptible to mishaps and turnovers because of it.  Hence, the real story is the weather.  OSU covers the 3.5 chalk either way, but if the weather lightens up, they win this one in double digit fashion.

OSU -3.5

  Weather is suppose to be pretty bad.  I'm on the UNDER.

that was the best write-up ive read thus far. u broke it down perfect. i'm with ya on OSU! Good luck to us.

oh and ready to read the wisky/mich st game write-up. like the points also.