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Trends & Things 2008-2009 NFL review

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Captain
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Posted: #1
Hey everyone ...
 
I will be reviewing and updating the Trends & Things thread for the 2008-2009 NFL season .
 
Favorites vs Underdogs >>>
 
Week 1 : Favs 10 - 6  ATS
Week 2 : Favs  8 - 5- 2  ATS ( one game postponed )
Week 3 : Favs  10 - 6 ATS
Week 4 : Favs  7 - 6 ATS
Week 5 : Favs  7 - 7 ATS   
Week 6 :  Favs  6 - 8 ATS
Week 7  : Favs  6 - 8 ATS
Week 8 :  Favs  7 - 7 ATS
Week 9 :  Favs : 5 - 9 ATS
Week 10 : Favs  6 - 8 ATS
Week 11 : Favs : 8 - 8 ATS
Week 12 : Favs : 10 - 5 - 1 ATS
Week 13 : Favs : 7 - 8 - 1 ATS
Week 14 : Favs : 9 - 7 ATS
Week 15 : Favs : 5 - 10 - 1 ATS
Week 16 : Favs : 5 - 11 ATS
Week 17 : Favs : 10 - 6 ATS
 
 
2008-2009 season >>>
 Favs finish 126 - 125 - 5 ( 50.2 % )  ATS
 
We see that despite a torrid 35 - 23 - 2 ATS start by the favorites to commence the year , it all evened out in the end.

These results are based on covers scoreboard final listed odds for each particular game throughtout the 2008-2009 regular season.  

Please mention any errors so they can be corrected .       

 

 
 
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Posted: #2
nice to see you back roberto.  cant wait for opening kickoff. just a few months away
 
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Overs vs Unders >>>
 
Week 1 : Overs  7 - 9 - 0
Week 2 : Overs  7 - 8 - 0  ( one game canceled )
Week 3   Overs  11 - 5 - 0
Week 4   Overs  10 - 2 - 1
Week 5 : Overs   8 - 6 - 0
Week 6 : Overs   4 - 9 - 1
Week 7 : Overs   7 - 6 - 1
Week 8 : Overs   6 - 7 - 1
Week 9 : Overs   5 - 7 - 2
Week 10 : Overs  9 - 5 - 0
Week 11 : Overs 5 - 10 - 1
Week 12 : Overs 11 - 5 - 0
Week 13 : Overs  7 - 9 - 0
Week 14  : Overs  4 - 11 - 1
Week 15 : Overs  6 - 8 - 2
Week 16 : Overs 8 - 7 - 1
Week 17 : Overs 9 - 7
 
2008-2009 season >>>
Overs prevail  124 - 121 - 11 ( 50.6 %  )
 
 While weeks 13, 14, 15 theatened to erase and overcome the edge that Overs had throughtout the year, when it's all said and done , they hold on by a slim margin .
 
Captain
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Posted: #4
Thanks jlt9889 ...
 
I will be updating the following :
 
Primetime games results for the 2008-2009 season
NFC vs AFC  results for the 2008-2009 season
Home Underdogs results for the 2008-2009 season
Double Digit spreads results for the 2008-2009 season
including spreads of 14 or more
Post Bye results for teams in the 2008-2009 season
plus others ...
 
This will be done over the next few weeks ...
cheers.
RF
 
 
 
MVP
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Posted: #5
the overall ATS and o/u doesnt really interest me.  but i am curious about the 'double digit spreads' and the 'post bye' trends.  looking forward to those ones...

thanks for the effort, roberto
 
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Posted: #6
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #7


Weeks 6-10 you can clearly see the catch-up played by the books in over-estimating the strengths of the favorites.  And then the swing back again.  Interesting.
 
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Posted: #8
Whats up Roberto? I see you workin early this season. Lets have a good year this season sir.
 
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Posted: #9
nice...
 
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Posted: #10
Very Nice
 
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Posted: #11
  RF

 
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Straight Up Trends (Won Loss Tie)

Away Teams 115-151-1 43.23%
Home Teams 151-115-1 56.77%
Favorites 182-84-1 68.42%
Dogs 84-182-1 31.58%
Away Favorites 56-25-1 69.14%
Away Dogs 59-126-0 31.89%
Home Favorites 126-59-0 68.11%
Home Dogs 25-56-1 30.86%

Against The Spread Trends (ATS)

Away Teams 143-118-6 54.79%
Home Teams 118-143-6 45.21%
Favorites 130-131-6 49.81%
Dogs 131-130-6 50.19%
Away Favorites 46-34-2 57.50%
Away Dogs 97-84-4 53.59%
Home Favorites 84-97-4 46.41%
Home Dogs 34-46-2 42.50%

Over vs. Under Trends

Overtime Games 10 62.50% 6 37.50%
Non-Overtime Games 119 49.38% 122 50.62%
 
I pulled this off covers...
 
Captain
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Posted: #13
NFC vs AFC
 
Final update for the 2008-2009 season :
 
Week 14 results : AFC goes 4-2 SU AFC goes 3-3 ATS
Week 15 results : AFC goes 4-2 SU AFC goes 2-4 ATS
Week 16 results : AFC goes 3-1 SU AFC goes 3-1 ATS
Week 17 results : AFC goes 2-0 SU AFC goes 2-0 ATS
 
the AFC conference finishes on a strong note highlighted by 6 outright wins by an AFC team as dogs over their NFC counterparts
( Hou + 7 vs GB in week 14 ,
Cin + 6.5 vs Was , Jac + 2.5 vs GB in week 15,
Bal + 5 vs Dallas , SD + 3.5 over TB in week 16,
and finally  Oak + 11 over TB in week 17 )
 
Final numbers for the 2008-2009 season :
Despite the strong finish by the AFC conference,  the NFC teams finally turned the tide narrowing the edge held by the AFC over the last few years ATS
 
AFC vs  NFC  34 - 29 - 1  SU ( 53.97 % )
NFC vs  AFC  35 - 29 ATS  ( 54.69 % )
 
Note : ( these apply to the 2008-2009 inter-conference games )
 
 AFC was favored in 35 of these games going 
15 - 20 ATS
NFC was favored in 29 of those games going 
15 - 14  ATS
_________________
 
AFC goes 32 - 24 - 2  ATS ( 57.1 % )  vs the NFC during the 2006-2007 regular season...
 
AFC  goes 31-30-2 ATS vs  NFC ( 2007-2008 )
NFC goes 33-30 SU vs AFC ( 2007-2008 )
 
AFC vs NFC ( 2004 - 2007 )  is 104-73 ATS ( 58.7 % ) *
* partially from another source
 
AFC vs NFC ( 2006 - 2008 ) is now 92-89-4 ATS ( 50.8 % )
 
+++++++++++++++++++++
 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
Here is how the top NFL teams did vs teams in the opposite conference in 2007-2008 >>>
 
New England vs NFC 4-0 SU & 2-2 ATS
Indianapolis vs NFC 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS
Dallas vs AFC 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS
Green Bay vs AFC 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS
 
4 of the 5 top ATS teams were however from the AFC conference :
 
Green Bay >> 13-3 ATS
Cleveland >>  12-4 ATS
Jacksonville >> 11-5 ATS
San Diego >> 11-5 ATS
New England >> 10-6 ATS
 
The very worst ATS record belonged to Baltimore at 3-13 ATS
 
*********************************
Here is the top NFL teams did vs teams in the opposite conference in 2008-2009 >>>
 
Tennessee ( 13-3 SU )  vs NFC  4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS
Pittsburgh ( 12-4 SU )  vs NFC 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS
NYG ( 12-4 SU )  vs AFC 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS
Carolina ( 12-4 SU  ) vs AFC 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS
Indianapolis ( 12-4 SU ) vs NFC 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS
 
Teams with the best ATS record during the 2008-2009 regular season :
Baltimore 12-4 ATS
Tennessee 12-4 ATS
NY Giants 12-4 ATS
 
The team with the worst overall ATS record was the Jacksonville Jaguars with a 4-12 ATS record
 
************************************
 
Captain
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Posted: #15

Primetime game results will be next :

 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #16
131-130 versus the spread last year was Vegas?

131 Favorite wins
130 Dog wins

WOWOWOWOWOW!

Is that not perfection or what?!  50/50 split!

Impressive!
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

131-130 versus the spread last year was Vegas?

131 Favorite wins
130 Dog wins

WOWOWOWOWOW!

Is that not perfection or what?!  50/50 split!

Impressive!

 

Crazy isn't it.

I would think Vegas would want a little more dogs to come in..

I can see this happening.

 

GL to all.

and great job RF

 
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Alright , now on to what may be the biggest surprise that took place throughtout the entire 2008-2009 NFL regular season >>>
 
Prime-time games ( games that took place at any other time than Sunday 1:00 pm or Sunday 4:00 pm Eastern time ...)
 
 
Games that took place either on Thursday , Saturday , or Monday >>>
 
Week 1 :
Thu : Fav / Under
Mon : Fav / Over
         Fav / Over
Week 2 :
Mon : Dog / Over
Week 3 :
Mon : Fav / Over
Week 4 :
Mon : Dog / Over
Week 5 :
Mon : Dog / Over
Week 6 :
Mon : Dog / Over
Week 7
Mon : Fav / push
Week 8 :
Mon : Fav / Over
Week 9 :
Mon : Dog / Under
Week 10 :
Thu : Dog / Over
Mon : Dog / Over
Week 11 :
Thu : Dog / Over
Mon : Dog / Over
Week 12 :
Thu : Fav / Over
Mon : Fav / Over
Week 13 :
Thu : Fav / Over
         Fav / Under
         Fav / Over
Mon : Fav / Under
Week 14
Thu : Fav / Push
Mon : Fav / Over
Week 15
Thu : Push / Over
Mon : Fav / Push
Week 16
Thu : Fav / Over
Sat : Dog / Over
Mon : Dog / Under
Week 17
no games
 
Results :
 
Thursdays : Favs 7-2-1 ( 77.8 % )
Thursdays : Overs 7-2-1 ( 77.8 % )
------------
Saturdays : Dogs 1-0-0
Saturdays : Overs 1-0-0
------------
Mondays :  Favs 9-8-0
Mondays : Overs 12-3-2 ( 80 % ! )
 
Between them :
 
Favorites went 16-11-1 ( 59.2 % )
Overs went 20-5-3 ( 80 % )
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #19
Sunday night games :
 
Week 1 :  Dog / Under
Week 2 : Dog / Under
Week 3 : Fav / Under
Week 4 : Dog / Over
Week 5 : Dog / Over
Week 6 : Fav / Under
Week 7 : Dog / Under
Week 8 : Dog / Over
Week 9 : Dog / Under
Week 10 : Dog / Over
Week 11 : Fav / Under
Week 12 : Dog / Under
Week 13 : Fav / Over
Week 14 : Fav / Under
Week 15 : Fav / Under
Week 16 : Fav / Over
Week 17 : Fav / Over
 
Dogs went 9-8-0
Unders went 10-7-0
 
Finally , all games played on Thu , Sat , Sun night , or Mon :
 
Favorites go  24 - 20 - 1 ( 54.5 % )
Overs go       27 - 15 - 3 ( 64.3 % )
 
Notes :
 
Overs started on a tear on Monday night football games going
 8-0-1
If you thought it was a good idea to fade the overs at that point because the Unders were " due " you would have lost some more as the overs finished 4-3-1
 
Overall, the Overs hit at very high rate crushing the " fade the Public bettors "  going an amazing 12-3-2 for the year on Monday night football !
 
Thanksgiving weekend triggered a serious run by the Favorites
as they swept the entire weekend going 5-0 ( 3 favorites covered Thanksgiving day , 1 on Sunday night , and one on Monday night )
 
The incredible run continued in week 14 as the favorites swept the board again going 3-0 ( Thu , Sun night , and Monday )
 
Week 15 , the run continued going 2-0-1 .
 
Finally, the run ended with another Over on Thu night .
 
All in all , the overs streaked to an 11-0-1 run during this span on prime-time games .
Despite unders hitting early and often during Sunday night games , the Overs finsihed on a 5-0 run for the year ~!
 
Another trend that continued is the one for Favorites covering on Thanksgiving day as not only they covered all 3 games in the 2008-2009 season , but also swept the board both in the 2007-2008 season , and the 2006-2007 season .
 
This amounts to Favorites being a perfect 9-0 during Thansgiving day last 3 years !
 
_______________________________
 
Please point out any mistakes so they can be corrected .
Be specific .
 
 
 
Captain
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Summary of high spread results  for the
2008-2009  NFL Regular season >>>
 
Group 1 ( Favorites of 9 & 9.5 points )
 
week 1 : 1-1 ATS
week 2 : 1-0 ATS
week 3 : 1-1 ATS
week 4 : 3-0 ATS
week 5 : 1-0 ATS
week 6 : 1-1 ATS
week 7 : 2-1 ATS
week 8 : 3-1 ATS
week 9 : 1-1 ATS
week 10   1-2 ATS
week 11 : 0 2 ATS
week 12 : 2-1 ATS
week 13 : 0-0  ATS
Week 14 : 1-1 ATS
Week 15 : 0-1 ATS
Week 16 : 1-0 ATS
Week 17 : 0-0 ATS
 
2008-2009 : Favorites of 9 or 9.5 : 19-13 ATS
( 59.4 % )
-----------------------------------------
 
Group 2  ( Favorites of 10 or more points )
 
week 1 : 0-2 ATS
week 2 : 0-0 ATS
week 3 : 0-3 ATS
week 4 : 0-1 ATS
week 5 : 0-1 ATS
week 6 : 0-2 ATS
week 7 : 1-2 ATS
week 8 : 0-1 ATS
week 9 : 0-1 ATS
week 10 : 1-1 ATS
week 11 : 0-2 ATS
week 12 : 1-0 ATS
week 13 : 2-0 ATS
week 14 : 3-1 ATS
week 15 : 1-1 ATS
week 16 :  0-0 ATS
week 17 : 2-3 ATS
 
Teams favored by >= 10 finished  11 - 21 ATS
( 34.4 % )  for the 2008-2009 regular season. 
 
Conversely , Underdogs of >= 10 finished 21-11 ATS ( 65.6 % ) for the 2008-2009 NFL regular season   
-----------------------------------------
 
 
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Posted: #21
Group 3  ( Favorites of 14 or more points )
 
week 1 : 0-1 
week 2 : None
week 3 : None
week 4 : None
week 5 : 0-1 
week 6 : None
week 7 : None
week 8 : 0-1 
week 9 : None
week 10 : 0-1 
week 11 : 0-1 
week 12 : None
week 13 : None
week 14 : 2-0
week 15 : 1-1
week 16 : None
week 17 : 0-1  
 
Teams favored by >= 14 finished  3 - 7 ATS  ( 30 % )  for the 2008-2009 NFL regular season
__________________
 
Notes :
 
While prime-time games were kind to the Favorite/Over bettors , the big favorites overall did not fare well at all .
 
As a matter of fact , Double Digit favorites were crushed during the first 11 weeks going an abysmal
2-16 ATS ( 11.1 % ) before making a minor comeback to finish off the year .
 
This was possibly the biggest trend sustaning  for much of the 2008-2009 NFL regular season .
 
*******************************************
 
 
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Posted: #22
Fiory, keep up the good work.  I love stuff like this.


 
Captain
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Posted: #23
I do have 2 corrections ...
 
On the Over/Under category ...where it says Game was canceled , it should read posponed
 
Also ...Where I mentioned the run by Favorites triggered by the games played on Thanksgiving day , I should note that this is ATS.
 
Correcting text  >>>
 
Thanksgiving weekend triggered a serious run by the Favorites
as they swept the entire weekend going 5-0 ATS ( 3 favorites covered Thanksgiving day , 1 on Sunday night , and one on Monday night )
 
The incredible run continued in week 14 as the favorites swept the board again going 3-0 ATS ( Thu , Sun night , and Monday )
 
Week 15 , the run continued going 2-0-1 ATS
 
Finally, the run ended with yet another Fav covering on Thu night in week 16
 
All in all , Favorites streaked to an 11-0-1 ATS  run during this span on prime-time games .
 
Then, I added that Overs finished strong on Sunday night games going 5-0 last 5 weeks
 
This should follow talk about the lopsided nature of Overs hitting at such a high rate on MNF during the 2008-2009 NFL season
 
Captain
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Now , a review of the performances of all teams coming off a bye week in the 2008-2009 season :
 
Results : 2008-2009 NFL season
Teams coming off their bye week
 
16 Favorites ( 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS )
16 Underdogs ( 4-11-1 SU & 8-8 ATS )
 
HD : 3-3-1 SU & 4-3 ATS
HF : 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS
RD : 1-8 SU & 4-5 ATS
RF : 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS
 
Favorites won 12 games SU & ATS ( 75.00 %  )
Favorites won 2 games SU & lost ATS ( 12.5 % )
Favorites Lost 2 games SU & ATS ( 12.5 %  )
 
Underdogs Lost 8 games SU & ATS ( 50.00 % )
Underdogs lost 3 games SU & won ATS ( 18.75 %  )
Underdogs won 4 games SU & ATS ( 25.00 %  )
Underdogs tied 1 game SU & won ATS ( 6.25 % )
 
Notes : Teams coming off their bye-week that were favored did quite well during the 2008-2009 NFL season proving they deserve to be laying the chalk and rewarding their backers.
Road Favorites benefited from the week off winning and covering every game ! ( 6-0 SU & ATS )
 
______________________________
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #25
From an earlier thread >>> Trends & Things week 11 2008
 
This is the result for teams coming off their Bye weeks for the 2007-2008 NFL season :
 
18 Favorites
14 Underdogs
 
14 of the teams were underdogs ( + 3.5 , 9, 3, 7, 4.5 , 3, 2.5 , 4.5 , 2, 9, 9.5 , 9.5 , 1.5, 10.5 )
18 of the teams were favorites  ( - 3.5 , 3.5 , 2.5 , 3, 3, 2. 5 , 1 , 3, 2, 2.5, 16, 4, 4.5 , 4.5 , 10, 3, 7.5, 4 )
 
In bold are the spreads that were higher than 3 on both sides ( 9 on the underdog side & 10 of them on the favorites side )
 
So, how did the 14 Dogs perform coming off their byes :
 
Underdogs lost 8 games SU & ATS ( 57 % )
Underdogs won 6 games  SU & ATS ( 43 % )
Underdogs lost 0 games SU & covered the spread ( 0 % )
 
So, how did the 18 favorites perform coming off their byes :
 
Favorites won 13 games SU & ATS  ( 72.2 % )
Favorites won 1 game SU  & Lost ATS  ( 5.6 % )
Favorites lost 4 games SU & ATS ( 22.2 % )
 
 Notes :
Only 1 out of those 32 teams last season either didn't cover when winning SU or covered when losing SU .
Significant , since out of those 32 spreads , 19 of them were higher than 3 ...
Teams that came off their bye-week and were favored rewarded their backers during the 2007-2008 NFL season by covering a high percentage of their games ( 13 out of 18 ...72.2 % of the games in this category ! )
If this looks familiar , it should when you put together the 2007-2008 & 2008-2009 seasons , this is what we have :
 
Teams that are favored when coming off a bye-week are a rock solid
25-9 ATS ( 73.5 % )
Now, that's a trend ....
 
I will be adding the 2006 figures soon ...
 
_________________________________
 
 
 
 
 
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